×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯,数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 20186
[posts] => 292454
[todayposts] => 609
[yesterdayposts] => 329
[rank] => 3
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2654303 逾40年经验资深交易员预测:每枚比特币价值将达到100盎司黄金(转) 1717402263 mxsj2016k
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:变盘在即,缩表或推动市场走低
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
市场观点
9 h- Y! r" D5 U1、宏观流动性 3 m6 M* Z( ?. H% }7 b
货币流动性整体紧缩。本周美联储公布5月份议息会议纪要,6月及7月预计继续分别加息50基点,并开始缩表。拜登有意取消关税会降低通胀,长期有望减缓加息力度。本轮牛熊与以往最大区别是,华尔街传统资本的参与改变了crypto原有博弈格局,成为短期走势决定性因素。随着这批投机者逐渐离开,crypto走势逐渐与美股有了一定程度的不同步。
7 t; B# _4 A) O: I& [
: [" F/ h3 V4 g6 d. t8 _3 n7 g2、链上指标 1 M; r, A" t" {( @3 b. v; y
从链上数据看,总体是大户和长线投资者买入,小户和短线投资者卖出为主。BTC在交易所的库存并没有随着震荡而减少,反而在不断的增加。这部分筹码是破坏平衡的定时炸弹,可能会随着时间而逐渐失去耐性,随时转变为抛压。
1 r1 ]$ `, f7 k: d$ y# J/ u$ L
" E1 u7 O( K. ^* O9 h6 C8 @5 d2 T9 U" p3 j, F. w
链上活动保持冷清。链上活动和DeFi代币价格表现之间有很强的相关性,目前DeFi需求在大幅下降,尚未看到趋势的逆转。很多DeFi代币流动性枯竭,基本依靠交易所做市商维护。
) Q% |. a! L5 \0 U+ O
0 _1 k7 i; w' O* B3 U: g1 E+ V5 t3、BTC长期市场指标 9 A* Q% H& K8 @: w4 d! [# p( n
长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.4,可见目前虽未到历史大底,但依然在低位。 6 H: v* A- ` Y, f# d4 r8 k
8 T3 C$ q0 j4 }, I" X7 w% e' d+ E4、BTC短期市场指标
9 d8 ~* j6 e9 r( F' l( e1 H期货资金费率:维持在0%附近,偏空。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。随着BTC价格下跌,资金费率开始向看空的方向转移,但目前力度并不算大,情绪也不算是坚定。 * `2 z* h7 p% |4 x2 @
6 ~& R; a0 C7 Y: ~# l! H
期货多空比:1.4。多空比数据波动较大,参考意义有所削弱。虽然周内市场处于震荡下行的状态,但是很多散户反而觉得是反弹的机会。 ) L% }2 `0 m6 Y/ [5 A6 @ z
0 ]1 R3 h7 w' x8 H, a( r
合约持仓量:合约持仓量又有了明显的增长。期权与合约市场数据显示,至少在未来3-6个月内,对进一步下行的恐惧仍然存在。 B9 c# h+ s; u M1 l. I4 P5 H
8 t4 {+ \% ^" A3 O6 P$ p7 J' K) g
5、BTC走势分析
7 F0 ^/ P% }$ M6 n) Z. H本周BTC在31500-28500的区间窄幅震荡,属于大跌后的修复整理行情。交易流动性继续降低回到一个月前水平,市场所期待的大规模反弹在资金不够充足情况下,只能期待流通量更加枯竭,才有可能在已降低的存量资金下有反弹的出现。BTC长期下行趋势依然没有改变,距离熊市极限底部仍有一定空间。
5 V: u! @7 d, e- [+ g4 \5 |5 S l7 D0 h1 s8 C
6、板块涨跌幅Top 100 , S( L7 c0 x) z/ O
本周BTC下跌5%,市场继续震荡。BTC的整体市占率提升到46%。复盘17年牛市市值前200个crypto项目,在21年牛市只有5%(例如LINK,DOGE,BNB)跑赢了BTC和ETH,大部分都下跌75%甚至更多。Crypto买新不买旧,熊市里抄底山寨币不是高胜率的投资,因为下一轮牛市总会有新的叙事主角。 3 I/ f2 u* n: Z
, H1 h3 ]1 V% w* X* X* \6 T
市场数据
! B2 N" q3 V: T9 I6 N1、公链总锁仓量情况
/ A( M- s$ w- f$ [1 V. |2 P- b! U . M' a4 U( k z( I( \8 ~4 a
本周TVL总量下跌5.08B,下跌幅度4.57%,短钱内行情端有继续下跌趋势,TVL在经历大幅下跌后也未见起色,可能会仍伴随大盘加速下跌。
) M7 x) H$ |; T# ?2 F2、各公链TVL占比情况 7 p% \& V( E5 N* H, T# n; s/ d
0 }# }+ n8 B- G9 {7 ^0 ~( p本周ETH占比从64.99%下降至63.78%,占比下降1.21%;Tron链占比异军突起,由3.96%上升至5.32%,单周占比上涨1.36%,目前已超越Avalanche排在第三位,下方已新增Tron链协议TVL数据。 4 f# V0 u& S& l
3、各链协议锁仓量情况
0 `8 x. c v i+ A" n% A! [0 Y1)ETH锁仓量情况 $ a0 q1 @- j# [& I; _1 o( t" _
7 T9 j4 Q& ^8 n, ]: N
2)BSC锁仓量情况 . B: d6 t0 d! M* s
% o9 T+ l, ]) q3)Tron锁仓量情况
, m* i4 g+ c# u( J& T
$ @8 i/ z7 H5 Y- C0 `' C8 }1 _4)Solana锁仓量情况
: A$ S( v/ j0 z
# f3 h& V) \: Y; Z" o2 i& ]5)Avalanche锁仓量情况 * T: n% O g" @/ d- }: d, J
$ h# _# w! ?! Q, @& O6)Polygon锁仓量情况 , u# w& s4 g7 q p' a$ X, F
9 c/ G' F' ^! f
7)Fantom锁仓量情况
# T" B8 z1 k, E5 l1 |% y
2 X0 ]4 J; T2 M' N, h! A( Q8)本周协议情况总结 $ [% U# U( o, k+ O7 t* e& b
本周Tron生态出现爆发,其上的官方借贷协议Justlend功不可没,Jusdtlend的TVL已成为排名第三的借贷协议,锁仓金额已达30亿美元,助力Tron生态成为第三公链;其通过TRX铸造成稳定币USDD,由套利机制保证价格锚定1美元,与LUNA不同的是USDD的铸造和TRX的销毁有中心化管制,存款放和借款人与协议进行交互,赚取或支付浮动利率,当前提供USDD的APY为11.59%(由USDD和协议Token组成),借款USDD的APY为7.51%。
" B; n S: ^& P1 p, u$ U1 ]4、ETH Gas fee历史情况 6 H! B: L1 @3 ~3 b
. @+ h! ~, H: m) s1 A* i
当前链上转账费用约为$2.73,Uniswap交易费用约为$9.30,Opensea的交易费用约为$10.20,本周内Gas出现缓步提升,每日均值有逐渐增高之势。 ! w* _# u& m3 M; g3 \" }2 A
5、NFT市场数据变化 # V' _) B; N K* [! \
NFT指数市值 - u/ T2 ^* P! g6 Y7 G1 g
. ]" d- F& w" {( B# J
NFT市场交易概览
3 m9 Y' s- o% q P( X) _! s
" y3 V( ?( y {' O/ kNFT“聪明的钱”购买排序
& W' z+ t% |+ Q" o9 X% w
. J" o. u' R7 g( J. G& k本周NFT市场依旧低迷,值得关注的项目为AIMoonbirds,交易活跃且收到多笔聪明钱的购买,其中包含了一万只AI生成的猫头鹰,画质精美,且重合度极低,当前Opensea地板价0.39ETH。
; m2 L2 o8 ]+ a ]
) L# F1 U4 j& r R项目最新融资情况# W/ c' d" ]0 d, w. I2 _( v
" V9 c* ^* @, R6 t6 [4 }& J免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19414 小时
本月在线: 1 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 5587 小时
本月在线: 4 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|