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[lastpost] => 2750023 电动汽车公司 Volcon 注入 5 亿美元资金加入比特币资金潮(转) 1752769605 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
6 n/ a7 B- I% G) D尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。1 U3 |# j5 C$ h6 A. J8 K
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。* e+ F' E) U$ j- {$ T" L
' J/ I: H9 b+ j/ a3 v9 |# Y其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。. K1 ]$ |9 f2 D/ M# i/ m3 z
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Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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7 ^/ Y% }& x% f2 O* t平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。 a1 J6 m, @: a7 \+ h* u) ^
2 `3 o% l5 s# ^" H# i( b. A因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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, V6 X; s. t/ U9 E- q/ x: ZBTC 图表暗示了什么
: L% M9 e5 c5 ^! r% K$ R虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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* e. t* A( t( C0 V首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
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( _4 \ P$ P- s5 A. z8 C7 s9 P. |从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。) [7 G+ B/ M7 K9 g: s0 R/ n5 j/ e
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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* o; B- i7 h# b# r9 r( o当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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9 I) @0 ^: @7 d2 u. F( |( u最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。8 a3 E5 S( ~, P# N5 B* e) r3 h+ P
: S6 X/ I1 V7 R2 u) K& t最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。. g4 B- { f* v5 d: F3 t) b
3 }( j5 \- C0 S h, @) I2 G& z截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。0 s5 e/ Y) ^9 s8 N
/ p+ _5 O3 o4 g7 n2 V* G: @5 b简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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% |% l( T$ v$ M, m: r- ?, Q! y如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。/ k5 E3 p0 q1 A: W; c
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