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[lastpost] => 2785583 从恐慌到布局：比特币巨鲸如何为12月做好准备（转） 1764518728 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。
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根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。
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上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。$ w& x9 r u- ~5 X. J$ C( T4 Z: _' d r
5 w7 k8 K; H2 \/ O' E$ l5 t当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。
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山寨币季节性指数
1 p: L4 S) g( C) [资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。
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此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。4 a, |' q$ ?4 \5 C* N" c
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山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。+ I) e+ A8 G p. f, W7 p& c
3 t9 r$ d' G6 W' A当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。
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根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。
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% f# P6 x% D8 J% E然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。6 E) u0 i! B- u1 }2 ^2 d
& h. i! [6 H6 K$ _链上活动仍然至关重要
6 X- M3 y, x9 Y$ D% _- p: }虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。
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' n, f$ y+ T8 _& G5 d3 }6 ]# R% e这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。% w( b1 U5 b7 J1 R6 [
' o5 v; J# _' x% s1 CTVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。, ` }" B) f h' W2 E
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目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。3 D- a! Y3 |+ T3 A! k
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此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。# q# ]7 u' L! V' ^" {
& z' W7 J- k% o# [/ l" s比特币与山寨币的去相关性2 Q3 _5 Z, M0 p- W& J
比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。; }7 m" _) V4 a% n5 l. R7 E
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当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。. J, D _) {! D' i Z; p8 i
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对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。
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这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。
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: |; j1 U' B7 w3 G+ ]! \. t; h5 e从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。3 y! u2 F- z6 a" n$ j
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最后想说的话, x* r: ~9 k5 d( s, b% M7 X* r. R
目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。
1 K1 g7 S" v9 _+ Z* G+ g% t经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。* z+ v$ M+ h+ u: {) K$ B( x% p* m
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