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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑. C6 b( S, P+ O6 m# o
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k9 z/ r# V p/ |2 p/ L3 v: G
o! S- U9 @1 d+ XG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)0 ?; w# s: Z- ]: \2 F1 ]- O0 U0 l
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [; |! u0 }2 Q! v# d: R
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( _$ I* R! N* J% b! {/ m" G既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
( n: I; Y* `/ o) C, o' Q& C4 L0 O7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
( Z4 G3 {* k0 v) T2 t/ ]3 B% `做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `$ {+ Q& F7 @* f- \* ~( e3 \6 ]
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
2 K9 z% k" O8 E4 U: K [6 ~: g/ [(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n0 `4 |' L( Z; Z# ?
, O/ C7 s3 i8 b5 T6 N(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 ) x& c% M$ \% b" _
, t1 H1 Z- w! [/ M" ]. ~' Q
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t& Z) l2 A/ i. a \7 i" w* R S
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(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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$ o9 _7 u& \- h$ XS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 % A* ^! e$ R! u/ w- Z
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 6 s& R4 Z; x5 i0 {9 G+ U, w. b' W
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j" `6 ^, b6 Y9 ?5 d) J
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \5 W/ c" O' m3 v k
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6 X9 |/ [* l/ ~' c$ d1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 4 U! P4 c0 [! P( E+ {# e
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l( B. ^) A% b0 v0 g5 c7 Y
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q( I! k# _, _; r/ H% [. x j0 k
6 u9 D# `* T: J0 D5 \' m. l ^4 k1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ; C& }1 F- {6 i, P6 V" W2 d) t
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r8 h( J+ Y, p" x* C* { W9 o
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
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类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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1 x7 Y. g( A$ [* D! l0 I, t! c V2 r, QS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ! o3 }( J$ \2 O# k& }
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
8 |. Z# o' r! V; m' V% T, u, P% O' D: I( {2 H/ a: [* \
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 * Q* I0 l; ^ b, S& G% o
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a0 F. ]1 {5 x* d* H- a- J
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
4 F6 W$ r4 G3 E# t3 o% g5 V3 H; \# S: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~4 o; n9 G8 v7 f" Y! R- R0 m
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o' Z0 L$ s* S$ N$ ]& c* n+ \
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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4 d: E) b" g% X# qB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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& a( k$ ^4 w' GF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 2 S9 O: ~( m4 h9 J
P4 O9 ]3 ?9 V, W! X& u
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
$ g: F4 R" Y9 B/ B# ]" ^$ v; w9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {) w- f# A* J8 P8 e# ?6 y! a8 M7 |
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]3 G: ~; C9 t0 R$ s' {
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
$ T3 D! p' u$ L6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
3 H* c) F& E1 q$ [, {通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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