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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 4 o5 Q8 G2 J6 h! o, h. S

" ^6 g; C& o& O: h7 P3 H" ]  W9 e5 O刚刚认真计算了一次;+ w6 B: h+ M/ P2 I
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:% s' a" |, H& w, l6 |9 [% T& }
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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" w% W+ w+ B; e开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72( b( ^% X6 t8 }$ e- o0 |
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72% v) \" W$ F9 L9 e  X: {
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5. r- z) c) _3 m2 n' Z5 m1 e

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) u) C, a7 x( J所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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+ T; e2 B6 O$ _, p. }6 l- s加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,8 {) t3 q) Z+ |4 F; Q9 ~. S) Y  T

( Q7 }# K5 U/ h" s3 S; D6 Z' G& }一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
7 c! K! @) k. i- Y每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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( O( R5 h% u, Y+ s" Y% K: ]& s) _' s假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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+ X" {! {9 G# _, |8 D每天净收入为:¥652
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" G* `6 k$ C9 p9 r, K# T年收入为:¥237,980
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" t6 h* `; e' ^* {7 n唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
' T( X( X: b% Z: A- ]唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;8 b  S5 m$ Y, x

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回复 2# 76gor
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  U2 [; ^9 R: f' o9 n   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?- P* c  m1 \3 S* ^, a% Q& t4 ?6 H
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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, t- S; ?( k( S' H8 C) L3 ?    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
; Q6 w2 F$ D  a9 ^beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:% t2 y1 Z. U! L

) [% a/ q1 e# b开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...) |7 E2 u2 S* l- g) Q
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
) I1 S: C+ ?  \4 ~大概是1%多点8 e# ~* s  a1 Y
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏3 |! r9 N# [2 v
大概是1%多点
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7 i: U' w7 l9 K  k& W至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...% }% t: q4 [* g5 R
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?5 m* V* ~5 K) I
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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( A& V3 D  w& T   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor # b' Q, B" b; ]8 |
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
; Z* C4 T0 h) K粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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( s8 H1 N/ ^% B, p    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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