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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


  B( f* P* p; I7 r0 p" a3 C5 p3 [賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
& t/ f6 J& z7 D- F& Y# H  N, h10A234567892 W) f3 p9 G! E! w6 b3 g8 g& B
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159* s" [& E1 A4 r2 H3 R3 W
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
5 s/ N: d8 b  I" `+ a9 Q7 K-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
4 Y5 C- e" m' c0 V& j-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120$ z' N! \) M$ J( x2 v, K
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1088 P4 i: `* G0 B4 Z$ N
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096/ f1 I2 s( k9 l, Z5 c2 m$ \
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.0852 O* b9 |8 z% `( M# Z! s
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
: r8 U* h" l$ e' T2 h0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064) {& i4 M' \2 k- K" y$ F3 m
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
: M# D+ f1 P: c0 V' r& P5 ]2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045, ^9 O) S4 a1 ~! F- s
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0366 L7 ^5 Y2 n6 h& h: J
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
" \4 C  l' C6 d3 r; E) C6 o5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0203 K" p5 ]6 k7 ]  V& S$ @/ k
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
7 ~: e0 j0 @+ `% K) [' [0 s; _7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
8 x. i# N9 h3 G6 T/ D' `8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
. N7 M1 U9 K, ]) X' c& D2 ]+ [9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
1 _2 V* X" [* N$ ?10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
+ e2 s4 l4 e& P3 A$ \11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
, i! L# l, O! A7 O- n2 l9 a1 V6 T12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
) Z9 _" z4 J1 d( L7 L2 \+ Y1 W4 M13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982. z' B. L' P$ c7 K2 a
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
& Z1 L* a2 I/ ^8 Q+ k15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979/ S! c5 H4 p$ o5 t5 H: S
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
7 Q3 I+ S; b  d# b' x- u17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
# a3 t$ |! w1 b/ b6 U5 {18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
9 T* ]0 j3 V1 H19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981/ b: w9 A  F3 W$ B
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
7 q4 F, L7 ?: ]+ v0 @21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9868 h/ i( }) x" n/ z$ ~8 \
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989! T+ k( k' W3 b7 k0 R, p
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993; X0 j+ \2 y! M( r: z- ]1 j
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
# e. N3 ^) w7 V8 v9 i% i# }$ n' P( l25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
% A2 K; x/ s, k! C* H7 u" d6 Z

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


, H2 s, @/ e- Q0 E$ N  C" G* }/ T8 `表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類* x7 @/ o7 C3 o9 Z3 l, p6 ~6 M
10A234567896 J; z. ^2 _" i: M9 X* B' v9 y# B
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0953 H* f$ Y3 O! @: s/ }1 o* ?
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0824 X2 t) i/ J, o: c, l0 `
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069  i. |  _4 T0 x: n' L
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056( L! Z( o! J* ?1 z6 C7 w
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0449 \& s. f6 `" Y9 }# s
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
/ D5 F: e) g4 I  \. x4 ^0 a6 s-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021/ z' @9 C/ i8 t8 w
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
) I9 ~) L6 M% Q* n/ V2 i00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000' {' E! P5 p: p8 W" O
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
2 b! i& s4 h* b  o2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
$ g8 A, B" b2 Y3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
- \4 G* t' K1 Z4 I7 a; Z4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
" T# r! f4 r* c6 v, |: \$ B/ f5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044. U* K3 X1 l7 r- {8 e: b, V
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
- ~3 R/ ]$ _3 u0 W7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057& v; \# N) ~* i3 b
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063& L/ K" m1 r( ^7 l" t
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
$ r$ G' f" R6 l& O" p' V# a$ t3 y10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
3 G2 _5 T0 [% @( s11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.0769 @0 M! [  l6 ~1 i% H
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079) ~2 T7 z  y0 {. E8 m) M2 D: v
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
$ f: ?) v( S. c14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084) J, T$ Y9 m/ u8 O- X3 n
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
" w! G7 v! c8 x6 f; ]16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085* A, k% f5 E+ F- k  u4 `
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
8 L. ?/ N2 x3 h3 N* F6 C* [18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
# w/ i$ Q4 p& f+ |19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
* C4 Y/ u4 I  b, e' q. q20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
  X9 j! ]' ^7 {1 ]& K21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078( [: _6 P: m+ ?1 ]* c# P/ W
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0750 ~; K+ d8 C9 J4 Z% [( D6 F3 N: p7 H
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
# j% m* k4 P: i7 k24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067  o0 |) ?" y! ]: t
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062# g+ l! y  \$ J3 Z$ z- q. @

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


+ ^& f# n4 q# f; _/ W! P' V押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類( P4 e( U/ Z8 E. M, q; r6 {2 H2 P
10A23456789
/ b. H8 q' D. \. X! e) e4 V-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.1222 b9 Q' ~5 J! u1 I
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
& \# x9 o8 D& F-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
, B4 D* X& I" y  p! B% w4 Q-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
; W/ m6 m3 X6 O4 n% c  f% @-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
- V- m5 p8 a. c-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.1936 i& `4 e& N" l1 n
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
( W0 m* d6 n! A9 c9 F8 ?6 `1 i-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
4 Z1 I* \& [& f" x8 V0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
  `/ a' l/ I2 N/ F; A1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
' Y4 R' k- Q; z1 _2 j5 m/ }2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
% K, [2 q* ?, A3 h7 m2 ^# N3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2589 G, {# m, w# H9 d- j( X6 G7 ]
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.2665 |* q8 A9 f0 S. q; R. X7 C
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
) \# c- h# t6 y9 q$ D% U8 [6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
! j. A3 [$ M/ U4 o0 w. A+ w" D7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
7 U' s" D4 j2 F! D0 x: B3 ]: p4 c8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293; e- s! P% ~6 n; v9 {0 h2 ?
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
+ I( _9 ^7 j. q( R10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3020 R* p2 p9 ^9 ?8 \4 J
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3068 c1 z- s& u  k9 h3 n! r1 k: L
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
1 @* H8 M3 Q/ }3 w$ L13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3102 e$ g& O% m& D/ C6 m- N. L6 `
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311, a0 F" u5 j, v* _. d) v8 e
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
$ r% i4 M. L- t  J# K. A. b/ h16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
( m0 I1 k, y; T17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
- ^5 ?& t( K* K( v18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
7 ^# s# |% E; Q# i19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3052 Z7 c6 q9 u! s, R, q
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.3018 I- Q/ r- q0 e' T. z
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297) a7 t( U* q* W% x* g7 |8 |
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292, K0 [5 r9 |' e6 k0 {. u5 T, n
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
3 r* U7 `, r+ R  _! I2 L) Y5 @24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279# I7 ~7 n$ n) o1 V) l/ X- ]
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
6 @3 f6 [3 v- a/ |3 |

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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