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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。/ C) H6 _/ u+ t
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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6 u2 i! K( [* F) M以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:2 a# s7 G* g9 C0 _
+ a8 H" u1 N x% W5 I
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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7 C; M2 I7 q( X6 V% h2 ^1 b7 H很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!). q" a# T- y. R* P& W1 G3 U( D) N
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化? H) r/ r/ [: i& ]( `9 k* E/ q
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盈利可能性
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" E6 O+ t/ m; }8 \对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。. \5 B* B2 W' Z0 a
1 `+ R* m4 \5 N7 @增值/ I" _2 k0 U( L
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。- h$ K! ~. K, t Y) u0 l" \- f
& x2 h5 b: @* t) ?你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?" a+ X, U$ C/ G; h
s( q$ t3 F9 s5 f. O/ d8 {" T9 ?! \a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
4 I# {; J5 g9 |# D: J+ |+ i* ^' r
7 Y. x- a, F* i# I: a9 v0 D& z, |$ o正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
$ P8 I" _8 m! o2 { E: }2 h6 y5 N2 O* I, k, P3 }, c# j
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润' F. B3 E2 F' R4 ~0 K f
60%的机会你会一无所有
) N/ T4 S# F& c' M7 T预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
5 }; D/ w& ~, V2 G2 B2 N! q0 y由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。. T7 W2 l/ Q0 Q) D3 p
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。: q( q0 B5 l- B3 z0 T: x( B& c
/ A2 T$ @' h) ^基于增值的投注
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: K3 Y4 q5 {/ G( G0 U1 Q3 G凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金8 N' [ ]/ u- Z% y
P=获胜机会+ i' V9 z- B3 ~, O: L6 P
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金) K; S$ n% C$ T/ N5 z
) \- f3 M8 d3 Z首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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- {! k! A& o; I( o4 @, k) X3 |' M9 [好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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8 }; O" |7 e% l. N2 E. D1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)8 y) D. h8 U7 D3 m3 z% Z# D0 M4 F
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)0 I, o7 h) O! f8 ^3 I
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A=0
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& g4 j2 _. x5 Q# x: z$ B结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢% g6 k$ R% ]9 Z- F0 Q& b
5 U+ }8 W8 z4 N; a# M3 S- R2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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/ Q D4 x9 E$ {" E& m9 T5 SA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)* M9 m6 A! S+ K+ M& T& E8 Z A N B
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A=0.18 h X6 R% A$ h5 U2 ~
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去+ W, H8 Q' m' u% Q2 W) N- m4 ^
$ U+ a+ |% o j3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)' e `1 r! e0 i5 K4 `# O5 W
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A= -0.2
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- C# h- E+ n5 X结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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