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[lastpost] => 2775417 【星宝】10月21日投注流水166330元 1761119021 rainwang
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小分3种情况:
0 p3 O; h7 J" q! O; ~' N# J3 i* u
9 t/ ~5 q+ e6 j: r4 U# _7 f+ j0 j1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
- r1 ?2 Q; ?2 R- J3 F! s8 ~( o. W1 V2 h0 l& R) V
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。2 v. R8 o: s1 h1 O, p
# k! _ K7 e4 }9 M1 R, i4 O
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。) [9 l& l$ t- V
2 V/ x! W6 N' R+ E
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
. m& B# |3 j8 h$ O O$ L$ f( j3 ^! B& ?0 M
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
7 s# e" K9 u. t4 U" F5 w+ @/ V5 M0 d1 @
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
( m% k$ F$ `+ B1 D+ }9 ]2 ~9 j& M% M/ M
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
+ q J) d. R( R& Z) I
0 Y. u2 q* u9 M( x5 t8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
6 i- g$ Q) n' U8 j. |2 U6 q1 s
@3 Z1 a" N3 |) a0 j' _由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
2 v. K7 s6 g' e( W) w
4 d! c' v s" K. X通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。. W( ?. h! `* `, z1 r0 M( B* _! f/ M
: N) b( h9 S: w- y& J
那么我们可以得出
# j8 u$ u0 ^7 j1 P% }# ^0 O. I- z0 ~! G& H3 T6 ]
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
P) L1 y8 E+ B/ h3 w4 n5 B( E. g7 ]6 P9 K" u1 R O& \, c" n" m4 Z
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 3 C- o- J" L: j ?
5 t8 \3 ` X) r5 E2 N# u5 }% s0 }3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
t0 O% g* Q& B! d. J9 c
4 m: n/ p) g3 A8 Z% b" ]所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
2 H* _$ |6 p0 |$ ?$ A$ L1 p9 U$ r, c7 L- A( v% r; k
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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