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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
2 G% u% n5 }% M& ]* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c6 {# g9 x" a* a9 |( T# t; V
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k* F; R& ^6 f; _: T8 n) V
4 o# d5 q- n! h' {+ I! y
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)( q8 Z7 ^1 i0 f, @) T7 b0 X. a
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
1 s: A/ D, X; E9 P1 a' d# N9 @, K& r# S; Q, t. V5 Z# K" |' H9 S5 w
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
2 Q+ [( I. E1 o8 m6 q; w. m. K: r既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
. E N8 J. N8 ]6 I: g5 Y7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
h) Z2 c% S0 Q0 ]/ a& w1 X$ V8 x" L做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
" ~; ~6 J% |; R+ ^3 c; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
% ?: k3 ]7 ?# d(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n& A% t+ l& B- e9 k9 G6 M) e5 F! j
5 B3 J2 H, _9 t3 b/ Q H, t0 A k(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 % V1 R2 M% F9 a) f+ Y
: }( F1 v2 @5 v8 ^# A
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
9 H+ g& V" g; Z6 p5 m8 A
; p4 N& w& n* V9 F$ W* o(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
; n0 `! d8 x: @- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _) i# Y% L/ D. i% X0 R5 j3 `. y
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
5 O- ]4 {; _8 d: S4 ` y5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c$ n; @+ J8 B4 k3 Q' A$ V) L- J
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
X1 {: X! f! F; {9 L# x9 K, g! j& W/ n
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
( `% K( ]" d, E% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
4 j6 m2 K5 C" t7 n) u4 GS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 $ }$ j0 |5 c# h7 Y$ u4 s; c% u
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j0 N4 l `5 k5 p9 X
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
4 J7 {6 i% }! [: C9 f1 ^8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
2 W/ l2 ^2 `+ G1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
; f7 B- |( ]* [1 c* B+ [8 d. d4 T& I! _: A" C5 T; q4 Y4 Q6 e! l
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l1 u* J! u Z: ^/ O# } }
% }& e* m; A3 J+ i0 r
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q U- S. j- b) e3 i! ?
! y$ i$ y+ o3 S: b) l$ _# E5 |1 V
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 4 R3 g! v5 G" [+ o! b6 R
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r+ f1 F E Q. R7 L" U3 w; M3 c
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T) d" |8 D5 o. k$ Z/ R; w2 _
& v+ p1 ^5 F/ K( E0 Y( v9 `1 _2 S. K: @类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j" C: B7 v6 z+ A% l) i/ }
$ H! q: H+ _2 Y8 ^
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; " v" w8 |4 y" q$ } \
9 S6 W1 F/ p+ @* M/ K5 F6 i
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
5 y0 J8 V2 \2 T2 g" \& O) w6 ^; m' V% T, u, P% O
7 a5 K" X8 w( VS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
9 M9 {9 a$ V% P" D; y6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a3 D" @# V% g* {. G8 _: d: h
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 6 l: G" Q9 C' P: p' [- H
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~! O q4 F- g- U3 a7 [
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o" [+ c8 d7 k9 g; c) E
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
9 H E* h7 ~* a* O. c好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ' H- X6 @- u% B
) q( ], k9 L T& t
9 N- ?: d: u' V% r6 a( bB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
) S+ E& {% h: Q, j3 |/ f
- k# b n& ?" R" N" ]) }F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 & C6 y( R$ e& U; Q( E$ C% u
) m8 {+ l& \# @* G& r, c5 D于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?2 H" Z$ F5 ^. T N
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
, T7 |$ \2 V: [# zG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M" n) O U, ?/ h9 N% N* X* i! g
+ D$ n) P# X# M8 i6 Z. u/ r8 e
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
0 e! n7 X9 D, y( k F( o6 `6 a {9 v: `" m. j* ?) T4 d
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]0 x! _# W$ a8 I' x3 t- q
! w4 O; {5 J: p y3 V! v当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
+ y! J1 T& z) I- q" U6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i, ~: g- u" h. z3 s d5 J
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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