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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


" s; S& ^9 d$ t" ]0 S, v賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類( A4 O- d( ]9 |" X  ~
10A23456789
* I. F' G' @/ o7 w7 G# J8 \; N-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
' z2 N4 p  ]1 h4 r-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
! q9 A% q$ D4 u: |-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133) f. Z& p! G3 U2 ?3 n
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
* X1 t, Z3 \$ {; O-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108+ B, a4 i  |' G% V: O
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.0962 v9 f' _: _  H% G! o, ~
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
3 |0 I+ _/ L0 D-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
( d7 v$ m( U7 J" ~8 x0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
9 i$ ^$ v8 L+ p% r; z5 i1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.0540 B7 a! o. `, }( @* o
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
& N- Y6 v  H0 e8 @3 ^3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
: Z8 C% M7 g3 n+ J: k4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
8 b; ~$ ?/ e/ v+ ]3 x) @' ~, W* b5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
! u  _' n+ b% Y" B0 A- T. j" c6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.0132 u# i$ x, j3 v& B
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
! O9 C; S% u8 c2 J2 `1 P$ Y7 K8 ~8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001, G% m4 S/ U( W% X' ]$ j* D
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9965 q3 n3 F& U! b* n; g. @
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
% {+ o5 n* S) W! m$ |* v11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988/ I% V5 Q$ k& }' Q" X% D
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9850 G2 k. n: t; N: q
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982! ^, w. R3 @/ J1 \( v
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980/ Z; ^: `* L: R$ Z! t; _7 _- j
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9798 q% `& k9 e( e* q3 }# B% T
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9798 k" h3 l5 l  @& Y
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
' d7 s2 \4 t  t& s- C& Y2 E18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9797 e6 m- \* E4 C) K
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981) c) S- w  b9 Z, X2 D# W! I
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983" ]! M; ?% G4 M- r) i, B% ]+ z0 b
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
8 l3 J) r- f, F  c; Q9 w22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
5 @2 ?5 N  k# x( H" f7 [) [23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.9932 ]  `$ J" D7 q: k/ `# v% v7 m
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9979 C' G1 O+ C, `; O/ l0 @
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
& f# H( G! T# p: ?. b) b" U3 Z0 r

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

" y7 i/ ^, K( H4 S  K" y  u" V( B
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類* W: R6 x& x  b- @+ R0 q2 g
10A23456789
, k* C; r) S+ @5 E! ~. ~" Q-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095+ t: K7 _- [* m3 j+ c, T+ L
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082& A0 O# n7 ]* A# I1 j
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
2 s  h4 t$ F4 o6 b9 p. ^" a# a-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
. C1 a* }8 Q6 l* {. B-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044( m# z# [+ G; n) S3 J
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0322 H( B6 \* N/ p* R9 j& [
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021/ {) k& w3 A% K2 S! t
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0102 L( g* q* g0 `. q2 i
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000" q8 ?7 V0 q) J: W7 D! h8 d' K6 E
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
0 \5 V  v' Y' `% |7 [' \2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019/ B+ L* ]& Y) b* U1 @
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
' T( c/ }* _/ j& n4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
( z$ I  [; ]/ B5 H* M( C+ e5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044- ?) z: R0 J5 B% t, R
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
# X7 ?7 g; Y+ d8 \7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0578 A" Z. ?6 R) J1 m  N9 \
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
! Z& r9 m# J5 E+ K4 T. W8 X! O; D9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
' Q8 P' T+ @, d  y" `, `% p0 p10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
# x, ~" A" D/ x- E! [11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
6 w+ B0 I( R& o; i. j12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
( R, U, y% F8 D' z6 [4 j13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
+ [2 a8 Q/ O/ |; C( R, d14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084, n! H+ Q# u* B  G# ^
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085. X: X1 [' r3 s1 S" r$ k
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085) G" x3 f! c) g0 m
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.0855 ~# Q5 }8 D1 I/ W* ?5 c, \
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
) n+ \  ~+ G6 Q1 w19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
* U+ W; [9 P6 `3 b% T7 A. U5 U20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081; y7 k& @% d1 R. _& A9 \1 Q: ~
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
1 t6 e4 ^# |8 i' T3 y9 G4 q22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0758 e  ^; n9 Z7 l' q' q+ `; w1 f
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
3 _, U6 s3 ]: {/ k3 p3 c: c24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.0672 I" P. X$ ^1 I5 y
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
* [# Z' l6 i- P  H) Y

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

6 l  o+ Q, t; n0 V
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類, ]" y# @# @8 }
10A234567894 o+ a; m1 t( P' h1 P9 ~. `+ r
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122- [/ f! Y1 x. ~/ m8 E0 ^
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137: K; y/ ?6 `, ~( C
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
9 _+ t0 G  V5 Y* g1 z-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
) E. {) v( e+ U7 Z1 O-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
% }$ X6 L* W  L. [  k-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
0 x7 T- ?; E5 i+ W2 c-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205" i2 N- I, n* R  E
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217# G8 I1 l4 o, r- Y
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
# p' Q/ j1 }! m) T, G) b/ @, V1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239/ ^# G* s: ]3 O9 R9 w! w
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
' D& W1 j9 r) u2 A8 v. N) u3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
  L& ~% P" i2 S- `' F, ?! C4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266) S# a$ d1 L5 g- h- H: P' f' O
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2744 Z0 Z6 X( {, F' Q- x4 p1 ^0 U0 B
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281  U1 W5 ^, Q( Q3 z; u  h
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287! {' |  T6 R+ x
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
9 |8 `/ s8 u- ^8 t- S' y# t% H. |9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
- v$ p9 @" X2 H10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
- J0 G5 N1 \' c* M; Y11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306% X0 u  b% Z  F2 T* a
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
" [; l7 ^% Y" v4 F% t5 y13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
6 s  M  _, O: N) o" L2 S$ x3 r( P14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
7 t7 F- \2 B* F' Z9 G$ p$ L6 {15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311, e' U2 q' z% ~$ l; u
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311& E8 j/ Y2 F* h. i0 E" {6 k4 a
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3104 k: t% {* h# l7 L
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308+ f$ n$ {' d! X: H( [
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305' f  U: U" N' Q9 l' g* T
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
5 K0 k6 F) y5 z1 n* Y5 _' ?% f3 E21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
6 m# ~# x* K5 M" ?4 j2 T22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
4 y) T  X3 ?+ V5 @0 L5 I23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
% w2 u7 I0 ]6 c4 j% }. _24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2791 }* ^" H, _( K0 T9 z9 _
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
6 {) i1 I  R5 R0 j. r

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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