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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率$ k g9 G5 ^ Y3 P, i9 L' C
; [) K6 X$ l) A* f. L" f
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:3 _. \: P( p5 w2 Y& c& v: v) u
0 b/ x; B: v# o* k/ ?* G皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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3 i3 [7 u" K9 z5 ^* E. j$ W! z( R很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?% o) ~7 O, d9 L6 H
( {6 A7 ]0 u/ W. k
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)9 n. W2 A4 ^4 I
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5 P' A" }# f/ m3 u6 N: x, a) g以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?4 g2 Z: t/ z. R g2 P" H7 z
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& F& d: o, V: B; W, x, W盈利可能性
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1 D. A" x. _! u! W x- w对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。9 W8 F" `1 Q! b# @" l$ J3 K0 A
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增值# {2 }6 d; o( {9 ^* `6 K) s
6 m [) R! O: { X3 f2 A, ^许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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, ~+ z4 k' @$ X0 ?6 E& g你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?/ F4 S) q% z: ]2 V0 j' n
- w7 G2 D# S; x8 l8 x( Aa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 M' O+ K) A, K. v, ]0 ^# q/ U
* @* v7 I( x0 n0 y/ \8 p: i, w正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么8 @6 G+ a, t# S& J) ~/ \1 ?
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& F- r! b1 y, g
60%的机会你会一无所有
7 I6 R' y5 r+ P$ }预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! c6 v8 F* V1 d7 ~- q; ~7 a/ ~3 a
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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* ^: p2 p' e4 Y增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注8 ^9 l6 {' g8 F- N* v; C6 p
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。& I- e7 x$ ~' C v$ U* m) c
+ v8 _! _6 _: F' d( ~, |2 s公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)9 d! y( V# E6 z" f
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A=博彩资金
+ }6 Q1 [5 G& e0 `$ c& _4 TP=获胜机会
; C7 ^5 e6 a# t* {; cO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。& {$ f2 Q+ W1 d2 u L
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。9 [: r$ w+ B+ H
3 D \& F7 d. T5 l0 G6 i1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)2 x% l4 ~$ h' u k
, f% L# \+ l0 u1 TA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)7 }6 Z0 e) }# ?1 L8 [
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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4 k- T6 J' ^: N. ?, r5 d4 @( UA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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$ t2 T4 e( T5 I9 i) X结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去( l5 O9 H# q- x+ X7 W" ~% F
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)( ?! ~8 N6 |( w6 @
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 7 c. a( B3 A- o0 ]7 {+ k
7 _6 i! J5 A! d0 ]( M H- @结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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