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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑   A/ [( Q- v6 ^5 g* ]0 l4 _6 u) C8 _
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刚刚认真计算了一次;- X6 p; w. ?7 P% B9 W
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:6 W8 z) a6 X9 K6 [# ?  i2 B8 U
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;1 H% |9 P& F! Q
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/722 ~4 y6 P1 J! v0 Q
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5+ K9 r$ D6 b9 s% ]
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  Y. q! G# W- |- T所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;! p; y2 J# ^0 e$ e2 p; B

( n% u. R% a+ w" q  _0 {8 n4 [加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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1 P3 L! l7 c6 z/ F" i以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;! D% d3 m  N; a1 _6 h
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,0003 }$ f$ D$ r$ K4 H: }
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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% b9 s, D! F! I5 U. a; _" J0 K假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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每天净收入为:¥652& n$ o3 H- w: L& E, _; e- q
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年收入为:¥237,980
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;, Y- ~8 K; D0 h9 c
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?: I& s" l& H' X4 l
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,7 R6 T8 N! @7 Q
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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$ \/ H' p/ S9 }* U    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;) l9 G2 G7 w& [, E! T4 D2 k

5 r1 @) a7 ?4 g+ t5 N7 g假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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2 f" g: M; L% i开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
( k! [6 u: Y4 `2 a+ n* ]; H76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
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7 k% ]5 d  g, Z. \2 h至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
- y. a+ Y: t1 d& R/ z8 e大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
+ B$ K5 n/ n4 Ytaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
* J2 I' E3 m; _3 {* w+ d粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 7 e# w. K7 n) r

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor 4 K6 M) s6 @( _) j  x8 |# `; z

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4 l/ s* I. o  t, {   有个风险就是豹子吧!
* X4 a+ i: J' x; ~% a粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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