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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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0 i! j) L; I) y# t& Q: R0 b西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 S* X: W1 s" V2 T0 U3 n- c

2 A( j9 @& P. b8 d/ v以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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: o0 C( u3 Y. w% k% F: X皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)( c  Q- R+ a: @' \, P

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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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5 }* \5 }6 ]3 ?" P+ d对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值& T: J, F' U7 M7 u

0 C1 a7 ~$ x1 p许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。8 k* a; t$ d/ z4 _% P5 `

' x7 L' B9 }4 ^0 o. P' b你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?9 U5 i* p, A# ^# N. j$ Y. w) ^

; O, I3 u. z, Y5 V, Ya) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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, w/ f! G# v3 U. C( t正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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$ E5 }2 X0 m' T' f2 }40%的机会你会收到150元的利润' `& Z1 I- P5 N5 D
60%的机会你会一无所有( [1 l) L4 _9 V+ I
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 v& r7 G- w* j6 g/ r8 c" D由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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( M( B. n; n9 J3 y" K基于增值的投注
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. R) x! n4 h2 v$ j, p凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。' e& B4 [5 p  i1 R; j1 t

3 x+ A0 a+ t9 e公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)8 R/ ?- t$ Q+ z4 m9 P% G: Z( Y( [; }! P
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A=博彩资金% S3 W: q7 C, C
P=获胜机会
8 }' L! B+ H7 Y0 V; ^& k% H7 x' jO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。( }% F$ O' A( H  f

9 h4 V2 M3 B* Z! t) c! a% U- c" B& h好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。9 C6 }9 b- E/ v
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)3 I: V2 e# Y  m* j- j
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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/ k! V! m( F8 v  j' F, q" R* b7 Z2 G2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)' M6 c2 ?0 I6 E5 [6 K) j
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)+ w( }, t& _1 G- O0 U4 m

% g9 u6 I5 L  L5 n$ JA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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' m. R% N9 C0 _4 S; ]3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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1 X: ]$ a  ?* D7 dA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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" X+ w, s  E2 M" d! B7 h) |A= -0.2
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9 [. M% k2 ^8 D9 z- `8 i4 n/ v结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好/ W! [+ S6 b1 q3 m9 g, K2 |
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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