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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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; e7 a/ _& Z  o' L* z/ Z西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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% y* `% l8 _" s3 e; p3 @8 B7 k4 z! Q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%   F, H( P' l1 k: D

) L) S; n8 J$ ^很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?9 i( j- B& T1 J

! s8 @5 F" ]0 x7 h7 U$ o3 P答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)' Z: E0 R- ^3 \
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2 L( {: K) S& m/ @: G以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?9 i1 v$ @- s' e0 `! S
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。. ]; K2 b; U. i' z+ L# w, F2 w

7 ?: i8 H4 u, f增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。( ]; ~$ h; k7 ~! I

2 D) ^; _1 ^/ H1 p0 i9 x你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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2 |% Y0 f( r7 r: |- {a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 " m: L0 q: T; K! A2 S9 i% F6 ^

: A4 V* W/ ^2 c" r) t正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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9 t; {! p6 i5 C' j* Q8 V2 L5 q5 U4 ^40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
! W5 h+ V$ U; _$ M60%的机会你会一无所有
2 ~( b! E( b4 i- O" }预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
7 u6 f0 j( x9 W! j* I2 s* T由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。# J# u% |* q0 v2 e
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。, a5 {- w) A3 A' K& `; O+ v5 I! g
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。6 N  f7 Z2 ~. r3 V+ F2 a

3 K0 s# |% Q/ F: ?& [公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1). Q% }0 i5 Y* J' Y) ^
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A=博彩资金
& \& O9 r; o0 ]P=获胜机会
  P9 ]3 o2 R* x2 LO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。" A9 r  Z$ s0 A+ l- T% `
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。0 C- Z- f! S7 O: g, `4 W$ y
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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3 _) `/ ]' c; j( R1 }A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢# Q+ O* K$ B5 r
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)# [" w$ U, U" N/ M
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)5 N: K2 m3 p; F/ J; j
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A=0.1
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: W- ], u7 T. K) c7 H( l* A结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去# C: V, M. c0 u) d5 e% x$ J" z3 f

3 ?5 o; ], K1 Z; P2 w! P# X3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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' z4 c2 M1 {; u6 S( \0 aA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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' K! [  g% i# F& O8 d0 l, w2 v/ Y0 |3 lA= -0.2 - r3 q  m" r8 L# W3 |

5 T+ d2 T) a, Y- m( B2 U结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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) R( |. H$ P+ ?  k( m% ^第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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