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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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1 @8 K- j0 _ J. i& L, ~: R西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
& P3 f# N6 e" Y( P# x- B2 B# a4 i* z7 N+ l8 w
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:: y5 B1 X& @; _& \! W
$ _) t- j/ P" s; s- ]
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
: h( f0 A" R% x+ g( T0 D |8 H$ U' ^0 M& x
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!). v V" ?( k* Z+ m
' i8 I) {1 Y* y. E1 q2 ]
& C ]4 x: ^: ~$ X" e以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?" R. t) ~% J. o- ~" t/ t" z
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盈利可能性0 f# A" ], r: E8 [1 S: a' X8 h% p
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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- Q' Y( \7 Q' L9 z0 \& K5 y+ p增值( H) @6 s9 L3 N5 p/ x# }
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。+ _8 u# r* l& e* Q
3 } r/ X `& R) X' y8 D, ^& \3 X! ]
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 _/ V- L9 c8 b& D4 N9 @" j; d
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 9 l& L4 o% Q! n# Z
3 ^2 _0 B! F( ]4 T& |, w正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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# g* G& F% S" P; ]1 P% ]9 H40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
& }7 r# O+ D8 H/ N60%的机会你会一无所有
- R1 O# K% [; h8 T, A5 n预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
+ ]$ m2 M% K( A由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。' O7 I, m1 G. E9 Y3 q
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。8 q' F" v l% U+ p4 \7 S
5 z$ q/ i3 B9 ?: r" r+ B基于增值的投注9 v; L2 T4 C4 d `
: k% M# @8 Y+ ~( Y3 A
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。. H+ }. G# {8 V# A
# X/ f! d- l9 q$ i% U! `; {# m& e+ j公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)" x" P8 G, ^9 j( z0 j
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A=博彩资金9 F6 _ A9 f' L9 H5 x$ O
P=获胜机会5 q8 H8 b1 c8 n
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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2 k/ ~9 s: z( e好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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: W$ \+ m& Q5 D/ w1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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7 Z3 F4 Z: s' `. r0 y% H1 r$ aA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)* v3 F! M0 z. D% a
3 t2 E8 z" K. {8 bA=0
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# F: M7 A' |6 B; V4 g, ~$ X* ~( [结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)0 Q- {, ?9 Q6 E( H) o( Q' G1 f- |
) q" J6 M) I" G# q) P& PA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)( ^6 K/ f! a, Y" L* t# c: S7 q
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去2 |4 C$ s3 |( F6 D
6 u3 @+ |; Y# n$ h- T1 r3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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' x. q) z3 ~: a7 VA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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4 [, `" Y' Q6 x9 k' N7 L+ kA= -0.2 9 h8 B" h) n& k2 y% L
) i: i7 X5 W& j, ~结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好8 _' \# g- z$ L' y3 j7 s
/ ^& S" W* G7 @- w第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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