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[lastpost] => 2766196 10年前，冲动买了10万个比特币的新东方老师，现状如何？（转） 1758223116 leconer
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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
; @5 f( F C5 x- B, z( T. j4 ~% iAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
' w, `! U( r3 n. x越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。' Q) ^4 l( G' n, n1 b
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。# F( J) ?9 t) @. P g
从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。3 X6 q$ B6 l8 C, H
alt/btc, e6 n; y' q6 G {! g1 Z/ K: }
alt/usdt
+ m2 f; c0 N& ^: _4 N/ |7 x那么，发生了什么？1 v5 G% s; \0 b6 q5 X4 Z
1. 大户轮换资金
- C6 q# s' G6 i6 Y与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。: ] f1 L% H& i$ g, h& X8 N
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。
1 x5 V8 @. G* s/ n3 Y# |但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。
7 u. \: W2 N3 U w2 n/ O- A2. 市场的防御心理8 d* l0 U: x: Q0 N; l- ?( w X( P
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。
6 C+ C" r# s* g* w* Y& s3 n这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。: a2 X) n) F( P, }- J
3. 需要关注的信号7 c; J& e+ Z# V( k# q. P
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。. r5 @! |; V7 W
山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。: {& ]: z" C. ^
USDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
8 w& D) t+ V% V, M, {6 j4. 对投资者的意义
, J9 O5 ]! `) d8 y在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。
) U5 w0 p3 d/ [" I1 ~如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
" O# L7 o" e( \. K0 c安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。4 X$ R) C& x, h3 W ^
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。
4 i& [% d- D* l1 f#加密货币#
5 }0 U5 N7 l& T- o$ w; l8 i) w$ _9 i+ i: t$ r8 @% t4 l
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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