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小分3种情况:
$ y- u0 b3 h3 K1 J
6 k/ E2 c4 S2 L' a. P8 g( P1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。9 e) Q( }8 k3 S H( o% @6 G/ c
% j2 L3 o. y: j' |3 c% |
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
5 ?$ G3 \# a- Q2 H
; X& P% q/ k8 T3 F2 x9 Z3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
% D7 z" z( l5 \- W4 _; ` r
7 n" s. T- ^ \+ T% P% ^2张牌8或9点的情况有:
3 @: m* y4 _) R" x4 s- _' B
3 A5 t4 D$ s y1 |( s6 ~1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+103 G- H' v: O4 z) m, l$ `
. s B' D8 J' B2 U( L1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415# s) v$ k8 A) ^
2 b& ~/ v. j+ q* D$ J: l
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415% U9 W. r. X* \0 C! y9 H) N) S
, e* N( k, ?; e% M9 Y% a) B' V
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 H( n" F7 J! W" U/ G3 W; y
* q" O/ p! X/ |
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。3 s* k7 M: D: ~% [) b+ s
- X% p4 u, S8 @通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
7 i) m9 C; F* o( o* ?" Z( e- W" J: k! T' d, q1 c, H+ [* ~" w: T
那么我们可以得出
7 `- m1 @/ |% k/ t, G/ ]
9 t# Z2 d N2 |2 A; j0 d4 K6 C2 _1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
+ f& a& Z0 b2 ?' ?1 P/ D1 z/ ]# ?0 h% ?; T/ _
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 7 K! Z" O [6 X8 s
3 q( D H; C+ i& O8 z, `! k3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854916 b# M' Y2 A/ w
, @0 Q" t: |* r3 Q: r5 O* O3 f所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
# E6 c8 X0 m# x% ~7 r$ D+ D
. X9 E9 U$ c P8 p) \$ Q百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306779 ?9 z' r) A9 B7 O& x
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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