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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 2 L* U7 i+ z# m8 D5 m# `+ _4 j6 {7 K
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刚刚认真计算了一次;# [& ]" r" R! U! p
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:) ]$ x! c  k% p
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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, ~% E: n  T, X! m0 G开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/721 E6 n9 k. [9 o& j+ v5 u
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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6 v7 I4 z7 ]& q7 |' Z. {$ b* i5 z收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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3 i4 h6 S! O4 u' W! x9 Y( h加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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以上,76gor7 C6 S! l' I9 ?
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;* L. q+ `$ _* h  R% a7 g

# V) \) F5 E3 @" b" H- a假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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! j. V/ f! j8 l9 Z/ ~7 x# l一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
  L( l/ d* P+ i1 d8 k& p. r每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152. d* ]" z1 G: C' z- O% `
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500# {+ I. C1 I8 J2 q4 `( D- O

0 q8 j, J  G6 {! m5 L/ h) _每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,980- C  r2 h, [3 L3 J) I

8 e7 y1 Q- w3 `! A* ?9 b唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
9 R, R  R1 D2 p唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?
2 D6 E9 C) W5 K1 _; LTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
% p' Y! n8 E# q( lbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;% t* t0 C; n4 e1 }

: R- J6 ?1 ?; R. ?+ Q: {- K; _) L假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:! s0 w. a$ A& ~3 l& g  m' ~1 b' T
; c7 F- ^& u9 ], t9 u( f
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...8 I5 g! h% }9 \  j2 e( O
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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  \" h# U: I7 }4 |楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏0 J1 \  m; j& W
大概是1%多点
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) W1 N* ^) o. E/ w至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
. y3 N" y6 ]+ L0 K  T大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
3 v2 q4 E/ ^7 B, |, R: J# T/ t2 dtaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?  A% o5 r3 E9 }( [
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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. m/ }' b7 y8 ~8 t" ~+ H    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor 7 D5 m6 a: t5 v. L3 ~6 s
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; V9 \( b+ |) n/ E- f   有个风险就是豹子吧!+ G/ \, \4 k6 M" c
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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3 \2 U+ q9 |$ R# j1 U7 C    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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