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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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  s* J* K3 ~- T& w  l5 D刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:$ J5 {- v& }  M& m. F5 ]

/ [( o* B. P- C( j. F开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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  h4 B/ h8 i: k: E/ h; z开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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  r5 k7 N6 y% v5 P开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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0 @; q8 n7 S, f以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;/ w% r" |" J& l7 t

: _0 j5 N5 h7 [6 i/ c, X  ^假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,- g4 R3 [3 W& J2 F

$ V7 C' M% Y: y7 E( @. k一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000. o: G* y4 W+ f- ]# K
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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0 X, i+ p  N9 p8 U每天净收入为:¥652! \4 u; h# m$ b) s7 m  A
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年收入为:¥237,980
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
7 z+ A/ R( r2 P& t唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;0 k& p1 b, ?, c
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回复 2# 76gor
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( S; f! Z& Q& F0 f   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?9 W3 s. g$ m1 j7 W/ T
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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* j# ?- q8 U& c% |! Q$ t    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,% Z9 \* A/ \; u7 E5 }5 ~
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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% E1 T- P! x( {    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;" O/ O2 k8 K% h& |' k9 ?0 p# a
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:$ W9 ?; ^6 f( K# v( j
  f9 T3 C/ W+ }+ U/ j7 X; }
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ..., {5 t% [, X8 x3 f- \: S/ `- \
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
5 d0 ?8 |- H7 s9 R& v" P大概是1%多点
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9 q+ P  y8 Y5 t* M; H至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
/ E" b  g. {6 W% p# p* S. p大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
: {" A+ [/ T$ C' Jtaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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; \& S. j; V1 v/ c; H. s! c    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
& f; j" f/ t7 U, L9 x, v6 P粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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: C4 L( B& e% W9 K3 M. E- p    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor + Y1 y- S  G/ F' ~" m7 A

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor * G! @  \% {0 Z& a

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!8 N3 N2 M" R/ J& V+ D
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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+ ?6 ]# q; K) r1 k+ r" `: _6 j    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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