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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
8 f7 X% v m& J2 I/ [, R* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
8 n, ^% ?/ \# `1 S" k& ~. [ j凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
. |9 k! N! E0 B! K* }( O, H& J2 t+ x; X3 [. _1 K
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)# Z9 | z% f1 w3 A, T J8 `
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [4 P! Y2 t4 m% d
: ^7 {/ P( C8 |/ E8 g2 \( Z. V3 q% g
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
- g( P9 y) N9 f; p既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
' r4 r/ W H2 P) k0 A7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s! G& H. t* H2 y. b
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `+ Y" E) B6 C' |
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
8 J/ Q; |8 ]" u* \. V; x1 {(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n/ A* | g L) r
" W) a% f k7 ^% q; |5 V& h(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 [& w% a7 L( f
/ F f7 ]1 f4 Y& B4 b1 M$ m(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
- j( K& b0 C1 Z; Q4 f/ v0 {. H" \5 S
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 ) T7 P/ {6 ]. @9 j" X0 ~" U
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
2 G2 w& G' p A! Q1 U, g我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 2 _) R8 c2 p1 L
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
: S( y- k2 Q, f: n1 m# TS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
' [7 C5 J: {$ \- l' B9 `6 L" ?1 E- O* K8 u# v
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
% y7 Y4 \. h$ L: h% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
: u1 l' p: j# L% x* p2 }- sS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 4 {2 V% o5 v. `: V* I8 O! o, ^
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j# ~4 F! T) S* N3 J3 [
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \7 |+ x8 s0 E w) T& r' g) [
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
3 K& p+ z6 @4 a# ]' w1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
& F3 \2 h, R ]9 b7 c; |$ |
' m6 }- D' b/ x( e3 F1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
) Y& a9 N$ b9 ]5 Y* H+ V( M/ f
2 [. l( z' @" P0 p. _$ A5 j5 K5 u, H1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
6 ]. t% C, z# }; K
; }; J' h. k5 @1 q1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ' _5 _) U3 f9 w$ K
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
) _, j# |$ F4 @8 q; i) `8 qS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T2 ?. H, d/ p0 Z4 Y3 o d9 @
3 `: i6 E3 \& K6 u类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
: g6 U) C9 c& `% Y% z4 h0 [/ ]; v1 }/ Y' X, g O R8 T
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 6 J* g, Y: ? b4 z8 c; E% r; X9 {
0 M' n. {1 K/ b" I* L
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s, h5 z* B7 }/ n# h( s( i& @9 x' ?
; m' V% T, u, P% O
! f; y' D# J$ j2 G% c6 I& IS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 $ u! m! W/ V+ W3 O- G
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a& d7 ^, A( W. D" ~; e# ^- A
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
- ?3 Q8 R: R6 o! O$ M: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
2 t) t* r- `0 n- b E(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o3 j7 ], y1 y+ j2 U
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
2 V. _" U8 ^& X) q( ], k9 L T& t0 n- }* f+ G' y9 I) {# e
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
# J, D4 G+ [" @4 X3 u
: t+ |9 |0 \/ n4 E9 NF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 - m3 _$ l/ q }2 d6 z9 r4 M
% K$ b1 P. J9 x. U6 H& b8 d" H$ l于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
6 i+ x: \$ H" o8 D$ `8 p/ k% m9 v9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {8 `, R8 n* p' X% O% m6 D3 d# c
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M5 `; _( I% U2 z! W. j
+ D$ n) P# X# M
6 C, g: u+ R7 b0 f2 F" iG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ! K0 y1 L; u0 G& W8 B, d
7 [, L# g( }) H9 a& @! lG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]& f6 F( p, D( l1 y6 j+ e8 s
3 W% x6 v, a% B, N1 i
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \, Y' W; i, `: T% a% @
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
; ~2 K! g+ ]' t* W8 X, l6 M) y' B通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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