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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑. Y& B7 J* ^8 ^! Y; a7 l7 U* t
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k0 Y$ s" Y; e+ q: c
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
. S9 u( H4 x. H( ~  c7 A什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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' x7 P+ e. t* H$ R- K9 ~- g2 e8 Z* }既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
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$ d8 G; ~! j( d$ C$ x做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `" r! j0 D+ Z2 y" z+ n
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(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n+ b2 U8 D. ]2 [+ }

) U: I6 y9 ]- i/ d$ z6 @! n9 v( x(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00    " ]0 N& ~2 T( l$ l0 D3 H! l5 E; E
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(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t
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(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    ) h! K( S/ l% s7 p0 v
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* D6 J! h- K+ ?2 b  J/ v8 M3 N& w我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值   
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S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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2 n  }+ M9 T* K/ ~* h0 T9 mS2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00    ) b7 \% O4 P* Y8 ?; q( L
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8 u( L- E* W% l& G  BS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87   
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, n# r, V+ g8 P& j, L9 xS4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91   
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8 u$ A/ h- ?0 {$ q" ~7 X6 C1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l
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7 O$ h4 j7 Z0 I. j: R( f! ~1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q+ D. }2 @& }+ ]1 T5 U+ P

# f: n; L( B9 i+ Z1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90   
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" M2 C1 m& v7 i# WS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T) @1 ^6 t5 m! ?1 U; M/ K1 Z
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类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j2 Y3 B( i/ H6 d& ?4 L7 S+ W( z
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;   
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S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s. K1 t  A$ h1 _" W
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' ]' j. Y6 {4 Y6 ^/ m; @. I/ j8 C$ c- vS3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31   
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31   
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+ V% |4 Y9 E1 J( B7 _2 E(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o' ]' F  ?- s) Y% J6 C" R& q2 i
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4 N! v6 t  X1 t1 P- M8 R7 Y4 a6 T好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    3 E2 E% c6 e: I+ f$ |! C) h
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' w0 r- O2 j7 DB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    $ e+ l( H* I1 f$ u
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M6 D0 _6 P# [: n
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G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    . r/ P' c  w7 A8 u2 n# ^9 S

, V% }$ Y7 B) @" d# Z8 I8 i- fG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]. I- ]9 m/ K" \% k4 F
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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& |0 W& }( o9 P4 V通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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3#
进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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