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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
$ \6 J* L/ M" K$ A8 O+ h* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c$ D3 y9 b/ P3 e9 @% X
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
6 w* }- x7 k3 l
$ B p# j& \ B1 i0 v/ K1 E; PG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
# z' S4 k( C0 N( e% B什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
9 |7 ], O+ k% w
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+ N- y4 G5 P) d3 K9 h8 @7 y* e! x既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! 3 L8 B: ]5 }( \* d" w1 [ s
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
9 f, B9 w, w, ^; h; H做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
/ F; J8 {1 H* U: ?; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
3 [6 j4 q( w. ]- z(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
8 W" G) B, m2 A) E! X
+ N$ @; W2 i" L+ ]' X9 U& P(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 7 L, t+ V" f/ z8 E5 U
. u7 s7 k- F" a$ T
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
i+ S: r9 o# R# \: |
. `/ [& ^! y, B. N/ F(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 # N$ ]9 ~. a$ `% |& a
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
7 h2 v7 n3 S, H1 c* W8 ^我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
4 [# S5 @. X& n7 g/ c5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c1 [, j' x3 T3 i
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
& R1 M3 n8 K/ w; G& Q3 \- O. @* R# {
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
6 }# R/ E/ Z# N7 A/ X8 k* Q1 @% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
2 S6 M" v* v- P. {S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
: L' I+ y$ l1 k% w* d" L( b9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j5 ^2 K/ o* L9 b P! m
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \5 W1 P; ]/ [; A; F
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
( K4 s! _3 [' z! S1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
8 b x; o j3 [% L \8 Q$ r& R8 I6 Y/ e0 K
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l$ B2 b, }: U" z" G+ X& V+ L, O% P
' E. R9 h6 R! `% f1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
1 p P9 U, Z) v! S0 e1 x' [) Q! j9 P4 k! Z2 g( x5 Y, t4 a
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 6 L! S0 a w4 Z* L
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r6 }! R. k( S$ T6 E/ z
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
0 a+ p" V- {4 A( [+ z- Q/ d5 h. z6 r7 L
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
! |/ B1 D( s. C4 ]' |4 K7 M; a. Q" V+ l. t- Y# t7 j
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 0 Q9 i* m3 h4 Y! |2 D
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s! y. P, {$ x2 R3 S0 Q# x' }
; m' V% T, u, P% O- R: `0 |/ s, h, w" z
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ! E8 D, G9 J6 t9 D; C
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
8 M8 w) g* [- R8 {S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 0 s7 d( K1 g( V
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
& y& ?0 K1 p0 m7 j, g, S(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o E7 p, I. @# G1 H$ p
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \& X5 v+ N8 X! U
好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
9 |, @3 h; t; B1 I8 X0 o+ c) q( ], k9 L T& t' X" M. g% B3 Y- v4 @/ R* K) L; u
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
3 h$ w2 m! F' J. @$ T/ j) ]7 x1 `& K3 k3 K
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 3 S# G+ K+ f! T
7 [1 I6 P7 }2 {' q于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?5 n/ H5 q: B/ H9 B
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {3 Y+ ?6 a# [4 o6 G
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
- U' e% W3 {6 ^1 h+ D$ n) P# X# M4 f' ]7 x/ C6 Z. a
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
/ H* m. \" E3 z! N# E8 u. @0 l+ G7 f* @0 T; v; b* {6 |1 {
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
@, L* A, [9 I# C/ n( @% @
- @4 [" y$ l) l' z2 Z) {) r7 z7 [当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \0 t: r2 w }/ T+ I& G( G9 Q$ K
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i; y6 P/ y' d: e+ H5 E. j
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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