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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑# O' H9 ^: s3 _- @3 J4 h
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k3 j& Y: k* h6 U! G
+ }# Q% R' b* L2 i# c2 ZG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)& a" [+ D: d1 A1 D6 S5 Y
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [, O, ~$ m# S/ Q
, `& R9 y0 }8 p
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h2 S! \3 L, U; A7 b, c
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 7 R6 \) w6 J* v( w; j) g; x
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s* a& e: {% O2 n( K
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
# g3 d+ q4 Z' l+ b6 \6 ]9 a0 n; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
+ p6 \4 U4 v3 B0 |& ]* W- {& v5 d(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
" i9 I7 o# ]' W. C" N E- m! |6 |. M0 o* w) Z( P5 E- Z
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 7 Q. r6 ~& `( e' ?3 |0 j
0 P) U- m) h5 m P& }$ G7 a; U: V
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t0 M6 R/ a. b' B& l+ f& s7 G
; h S+ y; L1 h/ I* |% ^/ p4 g
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 $ H+ j$ L. O+ p. b4 a# u4 @$ C( r
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _! K" k& s) u! C5 e
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
' b. n2 Y" Q9 [5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
! r' n. N$ I; d& q& m5 i3 Q' p3 n* G6 CS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 # J `' `. @$ E
5 j% H# h* D! w5 B' g
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 # |& e1 t& N; a4 X( [: b2 k
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
; I# P, W1 y1 {S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
v2 L* C; d+ e! q3 E: l6 P9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j3 a6 Q e. C+ `
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
# u' K4 u9 [ w( f& g- d8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v; s6 ^' S+ z4 l
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
9 d3 I- u* D7 _0 L$ i8 U: E. L. d+ z7 B1 S* C
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l3 Z0 G- J: N8 ]5 i9 S. t+ p
" ^1 d) H0 m/ _. k! H+ E1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
4 z, K+ L4 j' v3 Z0 ]# ~1 e. C% S' Z
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ; Y4 u8 P. o! m$ t# v6 J N
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
6 }" l2 D9 V- eS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T: K$ G5 R0 }- M( L" n6 e
: D( ]4 [. {5 X i! `- \ F8 x类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
& v, ~" h( ^6 t( w& j
) V% C& G" i& uS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 1 `2 d) f& a0 N
* M* b4 X! O, {$ ?S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
; \) ] O- n- W) }6 s$ I8 d& L o; m' V% T, u, P% O
, h2 I7 j( n/ ?9 }8 a5 B m& }S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 2 c7 O( }/ F# J& G" E- a1 z
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a. Y8 G& ?' O6 Z1 z; ~9 u
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
$ K; X* [3 b- B; _0 p" r4 G: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~& ~/ @: ^4 k7 t
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o+ A; l# F& R+ Q# u2 J
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \% X" B# n8 y+ l+ z
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
% R. P3 y+ { d9 a5 J) q( ], k9 L T& t& P) v) ~3 S, v' N- X8 _/ M
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 : j2 y* g* n# n, D) l# g) w
0 i9 d0 r% I- g, j% a0 r4 I) dF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ) u3 y* G2 {3 W5 O( z7 i" g7 N* l
+ D& l3 p( I( y8 u
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?5 J' o6 s `; R- F# k8 n
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {4 z; A5 C# J4 B: c, N. P. N; e8 H7 g
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M! j6 F+ f9 S* Y
+ D$ n) P# X# M
% w* n8 @* `) ^G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ! h1 D& c& T; U4 z
0 s) z! [5 J; t' h* k2 z$ L/ K
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
3 c4 X7 i% C: e9 `% V
7 O9 o3 a( f* d1 |9 j当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \3 X0 R( V3 M0 w. Q0 j
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
- M3 a. x: @6 o2 R+ r通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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