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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
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8 n, ^% ?/ \# `1 S" k& ~. [  j凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)# Z9 |  z% f1 w3 A, T  J8 `
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [4 P! Y2 t4 m% d
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- g( P9 y) N9 f; p既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
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做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `+ Y" E) B6 C' |
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8 J/ Q; |8 ]" u* \. V; x1 {(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n/ A* |  g  L) r

" W) a% f  k7 ^% q; |5 V& h(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00      [& w% a7 L( f

/ F  f7 ]1 f4 Y& B4 b1 M$ m(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t
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(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    ) T7 P/ {6 ]. @9 j" X0 ~" U
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2 G2 w& G' p  A! Q1 U, g我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值    2 _) R8 c2 p1 L
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: S( y- k2 Q, f: n1 m# TS1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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S2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00   
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: u1 l' p: j# L% x* p2 }- sS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87    4 {2 V% o5 v. `: V* I8 O! o, ^
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S4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \7 |+ x8 s0 E  w) T& r' g) [
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3 K& p+ z6 @4 a# ]' w1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91   
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' m6 }- D' b/ x( e3 F1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l
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2 [. l( z' @" P0 p. _$ A5 j5 K5 u, H1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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; }; J' h. k5 @1 q1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90    ' _5 _) U3 f9 w$ K
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) _, j# |$ F4 @8 q; i) `8 qS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T2 ?. H, d/ p0 Z4 Y3 o  d9 @

3 `: i6 E3 \& K6 u类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;    6 J* g, Y: ?  b4 z8 c; E% r; X9 {
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S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s, h5 z* B7 }/ n# h( s( i& @9 x' ?
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! f; y' D# J$ j2 G% c6 I& IS3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31    $ u! m! W/ V+ W3 O- G
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31   
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2 t) t* r- `0 n- b  E(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o3 j7 ], y1 y+ j2 U
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41   
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75   
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: t+ |9 |0 \/ n4 E9 NF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5    - m3 _$ l/ q  }2 d6 z9 r4 M

% K$ b1 P. J9 x. U6 H& b8 d" H$ l于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M5 `; _( I% U2 z! W. j
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6 C, g: u+ R7 b0 f2 F" iG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    ! K0 y1 L; u0 G& W8 B, d

7 [, L# g( }) H9 a& @! lG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]& f6 F( p, D( l1 y6 j+ e8 s
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \, Y' W; i, `: T% a% @
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; ~2 K! g+ ]' t* W8 X, l6 M) y' B通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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3#
进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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