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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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* M! Y0 L- p( j/ E$ x: D0 J) t西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率9 k' T+ G; \3 ~: u& [. Z% Q2 F
7 X, a) s4 M8 c% S6 g以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ) F, W9 g6 j% a# K
# o3 O2 Q* O6 h3 M很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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' ]* [, `' O1 a1 G5 O答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化? M( q: e' Q2 Q: }8 V, y, o
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。1 n: h1 T% \7 |( v. X9 t* Z8 f
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增值
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; e: O: x7 u8 O [: m许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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) n2 T0 g6 ?1 g+ o& `你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?' U( N+ m0 w7 B; s( k6 E
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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$ c% p. O7 L4 U6 Y; o* Q正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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' s0 o4 k* w6 L/ k40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
6 u5 L) A6 L$ G60%的机会你会一无所有& Q8 L% _) [) D# q" V# O; A
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! H) C0 j3 D, E, H8 J3 T
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。1 @2 ?: l1 v- `3 ^) v! I; e& s
, b4 a; Z+ ?6 |% _7 h" e3 ~增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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1 w3 o2 N$ J: M/ |2 O! S基于增值的投注; q0 ]! M$ ]' M9 E* ]5 K4 t z
- b& o _! \3 A6 ~凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。) i& |6 i) R7 V, |* b
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1) L1 Z; m- V; X$ n3 B p
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A=博彩资金, Y, H3 H H0 s' E( m6 t4 J+ n0 l
P=获胜机会
: _" J3 L) N/ z4 aO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。$ {' T5 ?: E: V
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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0 u- |9 K) `3 X) z9 |; C* rA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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6 n6 q9 p T9 k) t- O- [* ?) S5 iA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢- z7 G2 I5 c; d R, v( _
+ J* a3 E3 Q+ o4 R& n2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)$ V$ b ^2 _; p% z
! Q Q% T! o6 Z% j* M8 |; E" dA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1# K8 c! H3 `( Z: F4 y0 C( h* P* D
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去" |# N7 q9 B& S0 i4 W& A
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 9 ]3 W- w. L4 M% B* N
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好: w: P0 n. i7 c; H% z
) _, N3 ^/ I* I第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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