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[lastpost] => 2785583 从恐慌到布局：比特币巨鲸如何为12月做好准备（转） 1764518728 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。
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根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。0 J: G1 o( H# X, M
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上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。/ i' w* V$ O, @ z
0 o. [0 j. M/ w& T; k当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。
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山寨币季节性指数
1 v- k* ^; v0 d! A2 H# o6 N* \资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。, g( h5 i, W; T" ^& N/ B
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此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。
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山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。% W# _+ n7 x6 B1 b5 z/ W1 V" d
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当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。% k3 ?) [, H# k3 x+ p9 v/ U2 Q
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根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。( u' }- b3 X; q1 F8 K6 p
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然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。 S% ~$ O2 N# n
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链上活动仍然至关重要" m* g& W @3 [ _4 L( L
虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。
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1 H2 _" O( [" P4 n这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。9 q* `; ]) J+ o7 G& E
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TVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。
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& g7 `; t8 E3 Y) J, M4 d7 ~目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。
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此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。- D! s" _1 p8 f. \
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比特币与山寨币的去相关性% l9 ^' }( L1 w6 V
比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。
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0 }# |; D% x- G' r% P9 W当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。* q4 f+ I. o7 t7 K1 n
* ^( h: K: w- s- [2 o4 ~/ \对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。1 P8 }/ J8 K( P R3 c
& W( x& ]3 S: B7 P X) A这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。3 `2 E2 Y: |$ o+ V
6 g* G$ {: T1 T7 v0 D3 [3 f+ Y+ R从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。
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: c0 T- ?( m4 P4 U6 Q) _9 n7 \" _最后想说的话* P" \+ p4 `( b; G% J8 m, A0 P
目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。. n' B0 J( y' V) ]- @6 u. F1 \2 |* P
经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。
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