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[lastpost] => 2782189 比特币跌至 9.3 万美元，引发剧烈波动和“极度恐慌”：接下来会发生什么？（转） 1764248457 爱美的女人
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。
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1 q! a: b8 b! g要点总结：
4 K* W4 L2 o9 o5 s& ^由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。. j" e2 |' J- {% P3 s( E
链上- y' I+ g" G) @
在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
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1 r: Z5 V# I' l链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。! Y4 `% I8 n) g/ p: R
技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。
( Y* Q) ~8 Y E0 i! G本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。
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美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应
: x( t' f1 |) D: y" I推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。( g* {, x3 p/ F# z
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当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。
3 F3 [+ {4 `6 I/ }: `: T' P: i
8 `7 X$ R2 j, {; Q1 x链上指标变得具有建设性
6 E3 Y+ V7 ?8 S, f# e% T- [- ~普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。/ P% x6 u0 q+ |3 O" R" b
) C# n+ t( r7 ?( R: i普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。& F% j' X0 }- F, f8 G# h4 {6 s
3 e* b( [ x: t( {7 Z+ T现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf2 p9 h; j* Y% v' I
, `; y; s( @ `0 K A( z— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日
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市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。% W7 c: i' }2 l0 K
# ?7 P$ \# c6 A衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。2 f# K1 y+ }. \3 a0 f
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技术图表显示动能正在增强。! Q# o6 g; R- G# e/ i7 y
比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI
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; B( Q& Z+ h; C& R/ ?: ?相对强弱指数( g. I/ ~8 J+ H5 \) Y
$ E6 G( V1 j( S, v和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
2 K4 p! U1 W" C" E/ B. c* D3 i w移动平均收敛/发散5 M/ G: A. D8 }
) w# g, }0 B* A“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。
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