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尽管比特币价格回升至116,000美元，10项牛市指标中有8项转为看跌
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尽管比特币价格小幅回升，但大多数牛市指标已转为红色，显示动能明显减弱。图片来源于网络
) s6 }; ~7 C8 w& k# |据CryptoQuant数据显示，尽管比特币（BTC）周五小幅反弹至116,000美元，但比特币牛市得分指数已大多转为看跌。
6 [6 \4 J3 q3 E# x. h) k% s5 E0 y4 l3 uCryptoQuant分析师JA Maartun周四表示，CryptoQuant牛市得分指数的10项指标中，有8项对比特币发出看跌信号：“动能明显减弱。”* w I$ `5 I: {, m" s3 ^) N& x
该区块链分析平台的牛市得分指数由10项指标组成，目前仅有“比特币需求增长”和“技术信号”两项仍为看涨。3 {1 L/ i1 X; V* G8 a
“比特币需求增长”衡量市场对该资产的需求，自7月以来一直保持看涨状态；“技术信号”则追踪常见的技术分析指标和数据。
/ {5 m* s1 V7 U0 y# u. `+ d: R其余指标，如MVRV Z分数、盈亏比率、牛熊周期信号、交易所间流动性脉冲、网络活跃度、稳定币流动性、链上交易者收益率及已实现价格，均为红色。8 H, B D" \/ b* ?2 H' H- [' V
MVRV Z分数是市值与已实现价值的比值，用于衡量BTC价格相对于其已实现价值的水平。盈亏比率显示供应中有多少处于盈利状态；周期信号反映当前市场情绪；交易所流动性脉冲则表明资产在交易所间的流动情况。
4 o( d* D7 L: _, K; I7 G上一次10项指标中有8项转为看跌是在4月，当时比特币跌至75,000美元。今年7月，BTC首次达到122,800美元高点时，这10项指标中有8项为看涨。
. Q0 z' D' m0 P- W7 I0 ^牛市评分指数指标看跌。来源：CryptoQuant$ m" C/ m) \. k2 A3 q
牛市高峰尚未到来' ~" G$ i+ S, u' H6 ^3 r
CryptoQuant整体牛市得分指数——综合上述所有指标——本月持续在20至30之间波动，市场调整仍在继续。
3 [2 a/ W$ e7 H- \+ F+ D7 r* wCoinGlass比特币牛市指数（CBBI）通过分析9项指标来判断牛市所处阶段，目前显示为74，已接近牛市的四分之三。
$ v, i% }7 r! F% c$ e$ n* d3 O不过，在CoinGlass的30项牛市顶部指标中，仅有一项被触发，即山寨币季节性指数。- [* c7 } X$ g+ o; A4 B' U% l
比特币落后于山寨币、股票和黄金
5 J; b8 ^$ h' R3 @8 S' T加密交易软件服务商SignalPlus洞察负责人Augustine Fan在接受Cointelegraph采访时表示，本周加密货币价格整体表现平稳，但BTC无论与同类资产还是与股票和现货黄金相比，均明显落后。
! v7 I2 z: A) Y: ?她补充称，净买入动能放缓。数字资产资金流入明显下降，中心化交易所资金流入也处于低位。投资者更倾向于持有股票类资产。
: z# p! n" x( N: ]% i% \9 W“短期前景看起来更具挑战性，我们更倾向于采取更具防御性的立场，以符合风险资产普遍艰难的季节性故事。”
! h- _/ r, z! @7 \不过，也有观点认为，这主要是由于市场普遍预期9月回调，并预测牛市周期将延长。7 H" u- d& h' K* ?9 ]! V
加密播客主持人Tony Edward指出，全球流动性已恢复，正试图创下新高。他补充道，本轮牛市周期似乎正在延长，我们有望在第四季度看到阶段性高点，并在2026年第一季度达到峰值。( n j# y% n0 w9 `0 T/ L7 p% N; i" Z
BTC重回116,000美元
( k! c1 G. F9 ]5 T比特币周五早盘发力，日内上涨1.5%，三周来首次突破116,000美元。# P, N! o3 d* m: P
该资产距离历史高点仅差6.8%，本轮调整幅度也远小于以往周期。
1 b! m; {# x- C' @7 o, ^4 X+ [5 @; X* | |
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这波冲高回落看着悬啊，八成指标翻绿，庄家肯定在偷偷出货了 |
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