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[lastpost] => 2758058 以太坊的涨势看起来比 2020 年更健康，但仍有一个担忧（转） 1755570892 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。" s0 ?; I, E: y5 U% n: J
Altcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。7 r( Z8 X, y2 M
越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。
% T/ X9 [% C" `) M* U) O, A你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。
2 p6 y6 @; T! X+ }, s0 D; I7 W从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。
5 |2 F9 M7 S% s- N6 Z( j5 N# Talt/btc" n4 @5 m! t% w
alt/usdt
2 l' e! S% t+ Z' Y+ M: C+ O那么，发生了什么？1 {+ |8 v3 N' ]( D3 {4 e
1. 大户轮换资金+ c- L! A/ R2 J2 z9 `
与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。& c5 C9 u4 X# M6 h" x- \+ m/ B
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。: F8 O' S! F1 w/ d
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。9 r9 T+ u2 B% H+ T3 f4 b+ Z) T
2. 市场的防御心理
) K7 |* A3 n' y! s" _投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。
# ^: N& Y0 d3 P' c# O9 o这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。' k: n+ F% h8 j
3. 需要关注的信号
- }) I/ X8 a; `1 R9 m5 zBTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。8 v- e4 |' x5 e5 i( V
山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。
) s5 f8 a# D* `1 B1 F- aUSDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。' m/ N' D$ Y7 d% d8 q" m$ y
4. 对投资者的意义
! s. A. S/ Q! I; B, n) f3 X在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。
0 f, f+ C7 K1 ^0 d+ r- s如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
d( q$ c9 M1 ]. [7 h! I* W w安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。! Z- H( l. a& G. P
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。* T6 c$ r/ ~1 t- N% r
#加密货币#
h- U% r0 O0 ~. {: P7 P
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当前离线
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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