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小分3种情况:* L9 n" V- `+ o! F R# }* K
4 m, ]: G. \2 r: F" ^) Q
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
, r* T: ]+ W% `( ]
1 ^6 l T: |- g# @- x* q2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。$ V* m# y- t6 q* H! q$ h" u
0 |, D' `, E3 G7 m
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
: d, B+ W R: e* g, M! e& r& g" J# T# Z5 k4 r; C
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
% F, y/ [7 ~0 l1 _7 t& [# t( n9 M
; k) `1 L2 K4 j' {9 v7 p' I2 }& D- K1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
$ w& J* B& I/ w" ?1 p5 |$ @& R0 q6 q! p- ~6 V! \
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
0 W3 m. c% u/ B, e0 I" a0 g4 [1 Q, z/ `8 P7 N
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
' n% K7 p7 v* v
' `) u, d! _, {1 A; L8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415; Y: J3 G2 v) R# Y' f5 C
8 D+ D, k( j1 L
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
' M3 e( w; B- u' {! K7 @. i! E! [6 U9 B! k0 q' v6 d& I
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。4 M3 ^4 E3 W( G4 _8 u& R
$ _0 k4 `- \% {( L( z
那么我们可以得出1 L" x" k. t& h; Y
# L+ Y) j% i3 l) e! M# }
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
; u; g1 [7 Z) H" q7 V; I+ Y
+ I5 H$ P1 Q+ g" R% q- l7 e2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 5 @& y3 n0 i9 F# [
3 N8 Y; n0 _( E/ D
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491$ I9 |. s: V- D, W+ M" n6 m, v
. H# e6 g( p/ J+ d1 _7 |) }* M
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
, x0 X% S- s, {% d: L2 A6 q1 {4 f4 x$ C
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
. X0 f% t8 e6 ~; a! ~" f) Q* q3 a |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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