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21点算牌与当日冲销类似,坐在赌桌等机会,算到好牌下大注。
+ l  l2 x2 \' K. {算牌时将牌分成小牌(2-6)及大牌(10JQKA),789不重要不算。自第一手自0开始看到小牌加1大牌减1。
" |" [& T- f' b3 E& i9 d1 P& T依剩馀副数调整真数供下注及打牌参考。. j  V" a; b; E" h/ v8 `6 d3 Z
假设你面对6副牌基本输率0.25%赌桌,算到真1平均赢DC0.25%,应该下多少钱?下几手?每一真1算牌客平均多赢0.5%,真2赢0.75%,真3+1.25%。
; h: z  ^  W) E9 O. d4 V2 T真数愈高表示看到小牌多剩下大牌多庄家(必须补到17点)易爆,大牌愈多算牌客应少加牌、多投降、多赌倍、多分牌。6 y7 J2 r3 i7 `8 E; |
例如基本策略12 versus 庄3加牌,真2以上时不加。打多大打几门依赌本,风险偏好及同桌门数而不同。
: h9 z: b/ A8 _/ @4 W6 p假设使用50万美元,依半凯利下注……面对1%获利机会下1/2%的赌本,赌本加倍前输光的风险约1.8%(平均98.2%可以成功把赌本加倍)。
: m0 n: ~- x& h. y" }玩21点时下注后还会分牌及赌倍使下注增加,因此2%收益率不应下1%赌本,而是1%的76%……0.76%。7 W8 r  t- F. j
如果只下一门0.76%但下二门风险分散总下注额可以增加46%……下一门0.76%,下二门二门各0.56%合计1.12%,下三门总下注额可以增加71%!下三门各0.43%,合计1.3%。
0 T- t2 o3 r5 _. _2 w7 I0 P把500,000赌本代入,各种情形之下注额如下:
# [6 C2 n, j% f下一门 下二门合计 下三门合计
5 C1 M6 E1 G& Z: K真1 500 700 800
7 a4 M! U( T: D3 f! X真2 1400 2100 2400, P  c# N6 ?8 r3 B
真3 2400 3500 4100
/ s3 ?6 z4 [7 w# {1 S真4 3300 4900 5700
$ V. u' C0 r# j8 \真5 4300 6200 73003 l1 I2 h$ o  u- G4 N9 Y( ]/ R
真6 5200 7600 89005 u$ }7 e7 E. f2 x; p# m9 D; Y
真7 6200 9000 10,600
2 B! |$ B7 v# r4 o如果有选择,好牌时应该下几门?) `& I& I5 ]/ w
Don Schleisinger在《Blackjack Attack》一书中分析如下:) d9 k1 y  _, P* f
假设你打7位赌桌,单独打,同桌有另一人,另二人,另三人,另四人,你打几门最好?假设顶注500元一人下一门100次约540张牌(平均一轮一位用2.7张牌),下二门只能下67次(540÷8.1)下三门下50次(540÷10.8)则风险相同下(一门下500元风险与二门共下730元及三门共下855元风险相同)下一门总下注额最高:5 K" _4 |6 p1 }# z
一人打 下注次数 总下注额
# w( G4 ]6 X: X8 q$ V9 y" L/ p下一门 100 50,000*
8 I" Q; t, C5 d1 l' n2 a5 u# l下二门 67 48,9103 c3 J  W, k% U5 Q: ~2 X
下三门 50 42,750* T' Q; X" k$ q0 U' ^3 P, o; K) ?; i
*即风险相同下下一门总下注额最高(获利最高)。
1 ], `* o1 h6 P: N若同桌有另一人下一门:& n" M: l% d$ K2 E
二人打 下注次数 总下注额2 n/ x4 f' Z8 f" Q# O; u9 ?% N
你下一门 67 33,520
7 n; w6 B& |( \- h3 R- m2 c. X你下二门 50 36,500*
2 J$ m: @' Y0 `7 b% d6 {& C. @你下三门 40 34,200& ~9 m  ?- [7 \  R. |
*即下二门总获利最高。" U/ ]5 t, ]  j* D) e  ?, r5 c
若同桌有人下二门:8 Q* \/ Y8 [( a, N. v
三人打 下注次数 总下注额; x# x3 U* I" Y+ R
你下一门 50 25,000# f+ ~/ Z6 j( t: H, z% F
你下二门 40 29,200*
1 ?9 d0 @0 B. b' w你下三门 33 28,215
4 G4 z) t1 S; |0 o' j/ N*也是下二门总获利最高。
/ P9 V. |' _2 c. d若同桌有人下三门:1 M4 Z4 \7 c1 L2 X5 c
四人打 下注次数 总下注额5 Q* U% E! u" x9 k, |- b
你下一门 40 20,000
5 C/ O2 W- w0 J* w你下二门 33 24,090
7 t: N! j1 ]5 v- Y你下三门 29 24,795*$ b, [, Q8 s& r- a5 b- X, l
*下三门好。
, P; y6 p- ~) W5 B- W$ I7 E五人打 下注次数 总下注额3 @: `0 a1 n( N$ |
你下一门 33 16,520) h  f& V& [* `7 D
你下二门 29 21,170
/ K8 P/ D, T+ E3 \4 e' E4 F你下三门 25 21,375*
/ D7 m$ @) }$ w4 B! g*下三门好。5 z) I4 U* X- |' q0 q: e! d6 o
综合而言,在上限以内时,一人打打一门,二人打打二门,三人打打二门,四人及五人打打三门,但若仔细看其实一律打二门与最适打差得有限。如一人打时只差2%(50,000与48,910比),四人打差3%,五人打差1%因此好牌时一律打二门无妨。
: [$ S5 _- N7 b" @8 ~) G( l注意「上限以内」为前提。
. b3 O& I- T2 t0 }如果上限为500,好牌应下1000,则即使只一人打也应打二门甚至三门,又最后一回不必省牌多打几门无妨。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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