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博彩公司的主流阵营也有等级之分,笔者的习惯是将立博和威廉希尔视作顶级、韦德退居其次为二级、365和易胜博为三级。此类方法的要点是:首先对顶级公司的赔率倾向性做出分析,然后再结合二级公司韦德的态度,观察韦德更倾向于哪边;最后再将365和易胜博与韦德之间进行对比,观察他们的倾向性。继续以上例说明:* C" J! l# h) o% ^+ k! o$ @
立博初赔: 1.50 3.50 6.00 立博终赔:1.53 3.75 6.00
& H0 G5 ~. U V9 E% E6 G5 e; K2 R+ i6 @ 威廉初赔: 1.50 3.60 5.50 威廉终赔:1.53 3.80 6.508 C) M6 |+ p+ C7 _
韦德初赔: 1.53 3.75 6.50 韦德终赔:1.57 3.75 6.50
+ E* E. V: I v8 v1 p3 A 易胜初赔: 1.55 3.50 5.80 易胜终赔:1.60 3.70 6.204 e; t: ?+ m6 {1 F" ]( ?2 ?) b
365初赔: 1.57 3.75 6.50 365终赔:1.57 3.75 6.505 Z+ l; U: Y( |* y6 }! H9 Y4 q/ z
分析:韦德国际在初赔持有观望态度,进入临场阶段,当顶级方面对胜平负作出调整时,韦德在提高主胜赔付方面跟进力度较大,而对平局和客胜则采取不变的应对策略。那么,这个阶段可以做出的小结是:韦德在平局和客胜方面有所考虑。再看三级公司的态度,易胜博和365在初赔阶段主胜高于韦德和顶级公司的赔率水平,其中易胜博把客胜压的最低。2 i. m( W0 i4 g% r7 x4 u- R
进入临场阶段时,易胜博对主胜提升的幅度高于所有公司,虽然客胜提升幅度也不小,但是却处于韦德和365之下,而365则始终默认着初始态度不做任何调整。
/ G5 M$ e" I' Q9 {/ H+ |+ u 为了更清晰的了解主流公司间分级对比,下面再举一组案例说明。?
% i0 s' H( _9 D4 j& y" u( l 波尔多2-1奥林比亚高斯; K/ Q2 V7 b# h5 J/ L& ^+ A" C7 M
时间:2010年3月18日 欧洲冠军杯小组赛
* h7 l8 q3 ^& o 立博初赔:1.53 3.50 5.50 立博终赔:1.53 3.75 6.50
# u4 T0 O' g2 z! P2 o V2 q* Q9 u 威廉初赔:1.50 3.60 5.50 威廉终赔:1.53 3.80 6.504 ^# @8 n" L/ O" l
韦德初赔:1.53 3.75 6.50 韦德终赔:1.50 4.00 7.00' |3 |) I9 \" u/ o( k! `
365初赔: 1.57 4.00 6.00 365终赔: 1.53 4.00 6.500 O* {% B: y" c( i6 v, v
易胜初赔:1.55 3.50 5.80 易胜终赔:1.53 3.90 7.00?3 R* h* C6 v) v. M, S/ ~. o" ~
分析:在初赔阶段看不出顶级公司之间存在明显分歧,威廉希尔胜赔还略低于立博。二级的韦德初赔阶段即在平赔和客胜方面高出顶级公司很多,初始态度较明朗的否定了平局与客胜。365初期的主胜赔率较高,但是平局和客胜也处于较高水平。易胜博平局数值最低,似乎对主队能否具备绝对优势抱有顾虑。
2 _; Z- _8 x& z0 X8 ~% Q" N4 P 临场阶段,只有威廉希尔一家调高胜赔,而此举并未得到其他公司认可。韦德等主胜一致向立博的水位靠拢,根据立博在胜负方面的权威性来判断,在客胜和平局均被调高的前提下,博彩公司看好主胜的倾向性基本可以成立。而最终主队2-1小胜也验证了易胜博对双方实力定位的正确性。
% X- `/ \( B$ C4 o 针对该方法,经过大量赛前分析和赛后复盘,总结出了如下几种对比定义:5 s- O3 c3 t) a+ l$ S
主流公司的赔率只是制定了赛事的赔付标准,并不能作为庄家的共识来看待。' Y* ^' u9 Z4 P2 e/ S
各级逐次对比,找出更在乎局部利益的小公司的倾向性,可以形成赔率倾向的基本结论。
1 Q+ H% C8 C0 Y, h2 W8 c! O 立博如在某项得到威廉希尔的共识,注意这种共识一定要是动态的,如立博临场降低胜赔,威廉希尔也随之调整甚至动作大于立博,则该项打出的可能性很大。8 v) p1 Q- \; J, r! X+ M% A( F
韦德国际初赔阶段与顶级公司的对比很重要,该公司往往在初始阶段即从赔率上有所倾向。韦德公司临场阶段对两家顶级公司的倾向性也很关键,其支持力度较大的一方打出的可能性较大。( c% E9 u$ q& g* k2 ~# d! \+ Z" s
365和易胜博与顶级公司和韦德的对比应是交错的,即首先要观察这两家公司与威廉、立博之间的对比关系,然后再去与韦德对比,终究该两家公司目前在实力和影响力上并不逊色于韦德。
- i5 y" G. \" k. N! Y 小公司的盘子都较小,最担心的既是受到市场挤兑。因此他们的赔率水位往往比较保守,一旦出现冒进或者超越主流公司时,则该结果的实现并非是他们所担心的。
% w9 c* g4 l6 } O2 N$ R 自韦德开始的各家公司,临场出现变化的一项如不高于威廉或立博的初赔水平,则要注意该项结果打出的可能性很大。 |
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