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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 $ V% o8 W4 F# U$ n! H
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:' K# z) V7 x% u& ]1 H% t
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72/ T9 M' r2 h7 @7 i
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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; M! Y6 e$ S2 k, e3 y3 Z收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5+ }( t3 v( ~2 a* \) S, R' @- l
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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2 {: d: t( b) U: G+ }( {1 K加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;/ S. d1 m6 ?' d/ r/ w9 w

" O" g+ q- X8 g& w  n& K以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;* o# a/ O1 i- @/ |( b5 S7 Z
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,1 C1 `4 ]( U3 x& [
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000, P' T! _1 v! X* I' n( g1 Q; n- V
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152: F7 G1 u# N/ r0 a% _. x: M
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥5009 {  T8 @  q" f8 ~, g  b, U( C! L

+ X8 O2 O+ n" Q/ b/ {. q每天净收入为:¥652
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! d3 Z% r. v7 b8 I年收入为:¥237,9806 W. G4 P3 I+ T0 z# p
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
. ~8 Q( P& v8 {唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?6 m+ r! u% Q9 R
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
. Z8 Q; W" k; l1 b) jbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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6 e) v2 B2 q# ]& O' v! R6 u    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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, F- i3 i% B; B假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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! Z1 e2 F2 v- t+ M# J4 ?开3个”6“的几率:(1/ .../ N9 t  l1 y" J& p; _! p
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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6 b' d8 n) N, q/ ]: o- p* K楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
' W3 J2 H2 b5 i; m5 j大概是1%多点5 k2 T$ p! d: w( _

6 \+ |: \3 L3 u# Z至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
: h) W3 e' \- ?/ t+ _! @大概是1%多点8 {/ W& S$ ]5 Q$ F0 k

& g5 `& f+ ]8 Y4 Y至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
5 [! b+ W* u/ _5 r& i) y4 W/ w$ ?taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?- ?# y; v& O6 E' L8 h2 Z
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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" J  N0 R+ y8 n. L8 A' p* c9 J% S    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 8 x; j; J+ ?# j! T

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& d5 ^% n8 O! L" h( \   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor & Z" c& Y( {+ b7 s& k; P
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. }# h2 B, g) _# C   有个风险就是豹子吧!
+ l2 q1 V  ^1 G. u( V* F0 j- y粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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4 {6 G" x, n. X+ j1 g6 x( b/ a    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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