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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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. ^+ w! M, _, v) O刚刚认真计算了一次;( D) ~8 D( e' Q
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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: Y, p! d5 @& g, t- z% g  L4 V% \开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72* L  V/ m. m8 U3 ~
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5: X# W+ a, \- o
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;( x1 @  E% t  K
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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以上,76gor
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000/ S4 @/ M& W7 w$ O, \! @+ I
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,1528 l0 S1 O  J" ~7 U
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500  @' {4 i/ a6 z6 p+ a, s7 g  O

) k- o1 m6 v/ B/ P1 m每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,980
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$ d) q$ U9 W4 r+ j. e6 ~唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;. K2 t3 s# u$ U" q! H
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor - ]' I% G* T2 H$ {- V: e5 @. ]

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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?, v' ^* h, Q; U
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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. C8 s# j) X* S' B    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,9 H# c9 t/ Y: P" q+ {4 P* R- V
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;* d7 E0 Q& f9 t3 F7 t

% I# a9 u1 j, x% i1 S假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
. e1 r% ?) U8 q' ]3 E! |, c. B
+ i" o  K, p+ ]8 ^( J" e开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
. U  T  t4 v: d. f4 O76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
  \4 P' C, s( E7 R0 n- b大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
. B5 n! o; H, i大概是1%多点
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' t& H6 e: a5 [7 k至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...) u- x( \8 S; b+ `& }
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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0 V$ H6 K2 B3 M* a( b  h    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?: A6 a3 N% @  Y+ a2 X* O4 v
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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9 g3 u4 n0 V4 F6 I# f9 d6 A    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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3 A7 T& s4 p# U   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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# S6 K, A/ D2 ]1 {4 n   有个风险就是豹子吧!4 A  L7 ?( s3 ]' h7 z
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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* Y  S/ u( G0 ~6 u' ?    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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