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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 3 B: D6 V) s( @" ?0 C* U

) E: A- |) J2 i4 c& r刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:+ a, W7 B9 i* R
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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2 ^) ?) Y8 U! f0 C3 Z开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;6 p4 {# v, i7 l9 ]

6 ]7 C+ L; O, j  X1 m加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;  N/ u$ ~, C7 ]; \! z! s5 U& G
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以上,76gor9 a/ ?+ v- q- Q! d* e
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;' H* `" A, Q' t/ O4 \) F! L8 i
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
  A" q/ q4 R' B每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152$ ^( y+ B1 W& R3 z# ^9 h
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500: M: s$ j/ W" B) {" F& q( w

7 K4 N$ V+ w7 M% B6 g9 P4 s每天净收入为:¥6528 v- I% E8 p% v$ `

- x& _3 _: U6 q) d年收入为:¥237,9807 \% `2 c/ x( z% Q/ g/ p$ U. S

( [' H6 h% G# a* w唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
! _, v+ \% B  M: ^6 h, m唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;5 I; Z2 s0 |) B) c/ g5 k( c
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3#
回复 2# 76gor
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, q  o8 D6 x9 ^& A0 `+ \( `4 O/ P   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?! Z' }3 b# b1 e* V
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
) |" q2 T6 m- I- tbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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2 z' m& y: N. |1 G& M    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;5 Y6 F0 u$ r0 V
5 K) u1 d! E8 H- `
假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
4 l' q6 n! j8 d8 ]4 s8 E
4 S! h+ c+ k5 a- c3 n0 ?开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
. m2 y: w( T* }6 i76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏( z* z% @1 g. S9 y% Z( d6 l
大概是1%多点& f4 y  A  V2 \2 h$ S9 {
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
; l: e# I; q2 Y1 O6 J1 u' u+ m" V大概是1%多点- Q. A/ a; h2 ~/ M+ P

, ?: E& g- e: G! ?# }, o至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
$ U# J$ M5 X1 R8 Itaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
" y5 L! V/ A6 ?粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor ; |  W& c  b5 R1 _! ?. P- _
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, N5 I" h3 U- G   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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17#
回复  76gor ; ], L7 f7 ~# o7 _9 q! p, H0 K

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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
2 j- G* T9 d, e- p粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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