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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(1)
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有时,同轮联赛我们会碰到一些相似的对阵盘口,细心琢磨,会有迎刃通竹节之快!& O5 g# u% u' Q/ F3 A  r4 B0 J

- w& N8 y" u. A; C0 f# m5 g9 ]1 O% D布兰 VS 利勒斯特罗姆(6:2)& F' r, L: F9 v4 `! L' x% I& s

; U/ J3 B/ t% d, F9 O( P5 i; r# hSSP1.79 3.57 3.57, ) u3 k& W% P& j- G
威廉1.90 3.25 3.40, 0 s5 m3 J5 O5 V4 B
立博1.91 3.30 4.00,
. a5 }" ]! M, \7 ^, R伟德1.85 3.25 3.75,
) X+ r/ U$ Z" z: i7 W/ @Interwetten2.10 3.10 3.00---2.00 3.10 3.20, 8 r3 x! |9 d' I- T& k7 A6 G& m! X$ M
BET365:1.90 3.29 4.00---2.00 3.29 3.75, " k" H" y$ n' p3 D9 _, ^! @' `9 f+ L
易胜博1.91 3.10 3.50, 5 S+ v- H, L- m* G; ?, F
Unibet2.10 3.30 3.40---2.05 3.30 3.50,
7 }4 G( l7 H4 J9 `: A- V7 Y( sCoral1.91 3.25 3.40, # `6 {3 d: S* M0 T
PLAYIT1.90 3.45 3.75,
/ w5 a. |% D6 {Nordicbet2.05 3.25 3.75,
2 G- W& ~4 q" U9 c. xNorway1.85 3.30 3.00 " C1 M6 F3 R" P6 P( k; k
平均1.93 3.29 3.50
7 d* {9 a; p7 l. `澳门初盘0.975半球0.875,现半球高水, ; Z& |: n6 g! T+ Q7 g$ j
立博1.00半球0.84,
2 h' p3 [3 }. B3 }* P/ n* d易胜博0.95半球0.90, j5 b6 \3 s5 c) U8 T3 w
呵呵这场竟然跟本轮莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑如此之相象(附在下面),SSP,立博和本土的Norway两场赔率相同,威廉只是在平赔和客胜上做了微小的差异。亚盘都是半球高水,有相似之处,赛果会一样么?
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白蘭恩排名第3,利尼史特朗排名第4,二者积分同为10分,排名相近,6轮下来都是3胜1平2负。白蘭恩上轮客场联赛3:2胜了費德列斯,但是紧接着12号的赛事杯上主场0:1负哥登堡,如果算是主场成绩的话就是1胜1平2负了,而利尼史特朗刚刚主场1:0胜汉坎,最近6轮客场是2负1胜,上个客场终于取得首胜:2:0胜奥德格陵兰。
$ f( z& B0 @8 F/ ^* W0 j% I, @0 P, ]0 F% \8 r8 [4 e
再看最近的4次历史对阵,利尼史特朗2:2白蘭恩,白蘭恩1:5利尼史特朗,白蘭恩1:3利尼史特朗,利尼史特朗0:0白蘭恩,白蘭恩最近历史主场竟然2次均大比分输给了利尼史特朗。我们发现主队较客队的情况是不太有利的,以上基本面的东西几极可能被博彩公司拿来作为题材。2 k+ F3 H, |7 c* X: l' A! @
% Y8 ~9 Y6 @4 J; m8 e
我们看到主胜的赔率从本土Norway以及英国伟德的1.85到威廉、BET365 、PLAYIT的1.90和立博、易胜博、Coral的1.91,Nordicbet的2.05到,Interwetten的2.10(变盘 2.00),Unibet2.10(变盘2.05)后来均没有超过2.10,这兴许是看好主队的表现。/ C* n, O- W# z" y) n" f. }+ x
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利尼史特朗客胜倒是3.40 3.50 3.75这几个敏感数字上,直到立博的4.00(表面上表达了不看好客胜的态度)。平局也是集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中Interwetten,易胜博平局最低为3.10。/ }0 a# D& r2 m- H3 q, `
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我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,根据基本面的情况这也的确是略微看好主队的表现,但是没有象返还率90的伟德那样直接(1.85),鉴于客队历史战绩2次大比分战胜主队,那么3.40,3.50,3.75,4.00的客胜是非常有吸引力的赔率,SSP的3.57也是,并且主胜为高的Interwetten2.10 3.10 3.00---2.00 3.10 3.20变盘客胜自3.00至3.20验证了我的考虑,SSP主胜的1.79依然没有其他公司的主胜有油水,在主队处于似赢非赢的景况下尤其如此,当然会坚定一部分本来看好主队的投注者,那么我们只要弄明白SSP这个3.57平赔的用意,问题相信会迎刃而解了。# X$ M4 x% d/ _0 l3 o' t- y) l  x  O

+ P- m  q* }5 H: C$ R9 `4 C在基本面的前提下,比较一下本场和莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑Interwetten,Nordicbet的平赔就可以了,这几个公司相比之下皆表示了对平局的担忧,这种情况下威廉还比上一场多给0.05的平局赔付,它们的动机已经非常清楚。
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通过上面的例子,我们更能领会博彩公司极少有慈悲心肠,该给的不给,不该给的又诱惑你,可恶之极!这种战例也告诉我们,分析赔率一定要就事论事,历史统计只能作为锻炼自身的一种磨砺,脱离赛事就会脱离本质,要知道,水是往低处走,但是流动的!
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2#
可以说清楚点吗?
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3#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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谢谢分享,进来学习!
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