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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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1#

第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

. k  V, S  V- d
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類- z9 G5 x1 u! Q; U0 {) u. C$ o1 t
10A23456789- F1 k2 q& j6 S  Y+ s" t8 w
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
8 ^1 b9 s$ l2 t% R3 [-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
9 F' R. q3 j/ Q4 W. u! u-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
4 i0 V9 Z( C7 r, G' V7 T1 r& Z# i-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
# K5 a- p9 e' [-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108- }8 S' D# P$ n6 P/ }, ]$ ^+ ?
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
1 k; R0 Z: H4 [2 I-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085/ x0 M: r" m& k" b9 t9 c' J
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
3 X  M) z5 R8 Z1 y8 S" f' h3 M0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064! e/ J% X9 G" @, X1 k& x7 H. q: F
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054! K% T# K0 R' @; x) E, o. [- U+ s9 `
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045& k; J0 ]5 L6 y- ^: Y
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0368 L0 i7 x7 I! {  e
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
! z0 K- x6 f. f- c1 b/ W5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020. V* [  ~5 X$ V5 Z) ?
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
( V$ p+ I) z; R# y% J5 m7 ^7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
( T6 n( ]8 J( b  z8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001* y. X  l( @( i1 a- N
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
+ K4 E2 @/ `! E1 _8 o, _10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992" F7 T- @  i# q; T0 h4 a$ |
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988- v) v8 ~/ c. x! m. }( C4 X6 J
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9857 T6 W' o7 y/ Q$ X
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9827 |" M) d5 G0 A- d0 e, y
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
7 f1 q- |) v8 L, I15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
/ a  v- F) y$ N+ ^. d2 {# i. f16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9796 Y5 r) I3 i6 ^9 |  ~& j8 W5 d; _
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979! L2 j& m$ S3 y2 x
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
5 P! F2 d0 L' {19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981/ k4 M" g; D& Z( G3 h8 ]( a2 C* s) H) G
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
; J4 x9 ^* c* B/ W4 o! q21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
# i0 C, u: {3 h6 k+ @1 b7 M22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
  V- o- a: l8 u. h23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
2 [% Y$ I  f) m7 I9 m: _24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
. F7 T# k! X& J& a25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
9 Z: p9 o; K* z& _

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

; }+ O1 ]3 Q+ m$ p8 @8 {( i
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
* ^) N" x7 E, i, q* M10A23456789+ M% [/ `. b  \/ ~: q4 r6 n+ Z, E: @
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095& I3 W* ~1 @  {. _8 e
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0828 g9 f* Z, Y: Y, A4 S7 p- r( d) j
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069' K, U( C: D+ G/ T% [  i4 _: d& p
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
: J, Z6 |0 w+ j4 w7 K% Z# T-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
  E4 w( r/ D" w3 `7 O' k. x+ [+ w-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032, }9 B6 _% ?( i. s' S) W1 u
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
( h1 f6 G7 d  u/ @  t( {-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010) c7 P2 N' `+ h$ i' O2 [
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
  f) ]; }/ a' @: \/ k1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
" _  @! h. P7 `# U3 O1 }+ b2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
; T$ X4 H5 S/ A: b& S3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
2 |+ W- \: \% r6 a$ b. e: l+ m4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.0368 a, N( x6 D' D8 c( o0 d' a4 Y
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044% y& c8 n: [. E! I
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
2 m  ^* Q( v7 _; q, O3 M; X8 R& m7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0579 c+ P, S$ B  M, Z8 M& K( z
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063( w( N- W0 W6 ?4 W0 v; x1 B  p" d
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0681 P3 @( m5 j. w+ ?$ I
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
' |( L) L7 s) h; |4 E11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.0769 l7 m' C* E, H( S9 T4 U- I
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0793 Y6 G7 I2 I3 b0 m1 b  G# }/ V
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082: Y  _/ d+ b$ g9 G
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.0847 p& B- o. V7 }# X( A4 ~2 j8 X( Z7 Y
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
: B+ @0 P' a; i! P) t0 ^16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
0 u8 _3 ?( M7 O2 u! f+ O17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.0854 N. d% U8 b. {) ~0 v9 U- S  D* b
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
1 s! m* ]7 H5 k* p19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083; B# I; P/ C  E3 @/ |) h2 B4 g
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081/ v9 Y- ?# I3 E( b7 i( {0 u
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
5 M" O: @0 J1 S1 C8 Z' A2 K( b22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
; ?2 j7 f' C7 Q8 {; X23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
/ V2 Z, j( H( [/ V! B8 a! e24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.0675 e' T9 V9 E" l) s2 {9 ], m7 Q
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0628 r( E8 D3 h: `0 z  E- ]

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

! \: x. s7 S7 O0 e: j: ^+ C
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
8 B6 f" Z3 \/ D9 A9 Q. l10A23456789' L$ \8 Z+ ]* e4 i/ m1 A/ z: A; b
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
- i/ ?3 t3 H' M-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
& R$ ~7 ^& ~( s$ I  t  b-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
/ p2 o: o0 e: j-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
' t+ M0 G6 H; q-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.1808 `# H  S; }9 E. D- K( X+ X# f
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193( p8 [3 G8 P, b1 t) a9 d
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205( N% ^: U3 D/ E& i$ x2 e% o+ e
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
4 T( B9 G5 N/ j: n$ l0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
9 @$ i1 U/ M' `' i0 }1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239+ @/ X* n) E$ Q" f( T
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2493 e; i& Z" M- B8 {: X+ o" T2 B
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258# S% r7 F$ i6 Z" j8 O5 s
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
+ k1 x' x* Z. s2 \0 P2 ]. t5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
' s7 m8 h) d* z- ~* [5 H6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
% y' g3 k/ G% o3 ~! q. t) q' g7 d7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287' l2 ?0 _' m1 F9 b7 |$ E: q
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
* m. H4 W9 Q$ L  c) x- h5 u4 d9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.2986 Y  o( \  Y6 E9 }
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302! N6 ^* P" k( N
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
5 R* N& t2 n6 g0 n  {12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
8 b6 h9 p, P, }/ p13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310& A6 f2 ^# G1 h5 S
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
3 E$ B: S: x* W% Y1 T15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
0 q4 e/ S0 K3 o3 ?2 ~16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.3117 i) @9 i) j, T: C" E$ W% B
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
% v) W; d# I% \4 Q( U  B# R18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
$ Q6 w5 H& o: L1 S7 u0 p! ~2 b+ ~! f19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
/ y0 e) Y) v8 z1 N3 T" E20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.3018 w6 @. [) B7 b! P
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.2972 S7 c0 d( d! f$ Y$ Z
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
" l" x# b3 [) H  N23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
( \8 r9 U0 E: }24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279( z) j8 q- w6 _3 C# Y0 k! C9 Z; _
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
; Q/ P/ V. i0 U% z0 ^

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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