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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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# m# a8 F7 x; @( j, q西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率. F+ F$ n$ S7 q0 a% }
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:7 c/ |. u' ]% D2 E3 b1 Q
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ; \% E% K+ v$ X& g

$ s, n( S9 d: E很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?9 n+ i% d* N) a6 q
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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% T/ }$ {- t6 B3 A& {  i% ?) W) x; u
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性3 X/ p, t( u3 Y) U

8 T# r3 f; }5 c* }: |. d对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。7 L0 ]+ p( G# k! L- u0 _
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 : S3 i$ F- ?  u, T; Y

3 r+ x3 U# p& u% K正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 H$ |3 {! Z: b8 s7 W
60%的机会你会一无所有
" H! [! }- Z4 E- x9 C预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 " }4 A6 s) z; I- ]! ?/ a8 Z- S2 P8 A4 o& m
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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* J( K: c9 A* w! ~/ h增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。: r% [- O" `. I* q/ D4 E
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基于增值的投注: o( j: x( q% |1 M- l
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。0 c# u3 E1 P6 r
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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3 z3 R! T2 o0 w2 S" rA=博彩资金
6 W8 X" D1 \8 m& V% `1 }P=获胜机会. N6 M7 w# O6 x) S$ ]
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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  m% |/ |1 g9 a% ]首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。3 e) K; \) @) a5 C6 u
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。) R0 ^/ Y) g" q5 V1 t5 Y

0 q2 g/ L4 x5 g1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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, v; h: k# u. h( h  a. ]) R6 q2 }; d结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢- a) }4 y- F1 ~. l# j1 d" ^
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)7 Z; |9 Z  q$ j# u+ V9 K4 r  q
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)( j6 d/ O) P  T5 k7 j2 @4 q1 O' H

' Y+ O9 D. K7 {A=0.1% ^! I' d8 p! _0 R

$ P1 [- ?6 d( r+ F结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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% H. o0 e' u- Q; x1 d3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)% w$ }- B/ u  x. b6 j
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A= -0.2
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/ o1 L: U- M. V! B9 I4 M# l结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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$ h* ]2 K  W+ U! B第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
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