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伍兹包揽四大满贯赔率 英国博彩公司开出1赔20
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http://photocdn.sohu.com/20090305/Img262615278.jpg4 f9 W* m6 b+ Y8 ]/ ~% p0 ?
[font=Verdana][font=Verdana] [/font]带着一条伤腿比赛的老虎伍兹或许比其他两腿正常的其他任何一位高尔夫球员还要强。伍兹有时候在比赛中就像是拥有魔力一样，去年的美国公开赛夺冠就是一个很好的佐证。在上周的埃森哲世界比洞锦标赛第二轮，伍兹在第14洞还将一个50英尺开外的沙坑球攻入洞杯。[/font]/ G, Q: r4 R/ M" ^# M0 }
[font=Verdana] 对伍兹高超球技的认可或许可以从个大博彩公司对他开出的赔率上反映出来。去年，世界各大博彩公司开出伍兹包揽四大满贯赛冠军的赔率后，伍兹在首场大满贯赛美国名人赛就宣告失利。
' i' F1 @ l/ V) Z& Y7 T
`( Q& ^; R/ R& m9 s& T8 c4 D' N今年，各大博彩公司仍然相信伍兹有机会豪取四大满贯赛的冠军。[/font]% W# c2 ?9 O" [ Y2 W% o9 V) E. Q
[font=Verdana] 尽管由于膝盖前十字韧带手术养伤休战了8个月之多，尽管在上周埃森哲世界比洞锦标赛早早出局，不过拉斯维加斯博彩公司还是给伍兹今年包揽四大满贯赛开出了1赔30的赔率。英国一家博彩公司Betfair给伍兹包揽四大满贯赛冠军开出的赔率更是低至1赔20。去年，拉斯维加斯希尔顿博彩公司给伍兹包揽四大满贯赛冠军开出的赔率是1赔12。[/font]0 }' T; ]5 B- I
[font=Verdana] 当然，博彩公司开出伍兹包揽四大满贯赛的冠军也是有理由的。一些高尔夫专家称，今年四大满贯赛的举办球场，伍兹在转为职业球员后，除了英国公开赛的举办地特贝利球场（Turnberry）没打过，其它几个球场他都有过骄人的战绩。美国名人赛的举办地奥古斯塔，伍兹在那一共获得过四个冠军。美国公开赛上一次在纽约贝斯佩奇球场（Bethpage）举行那年，也就是2002年，伍兹同样夺得了冠军。那一年，伍兹还差点在明尼苏达州海泽戴尔球场（Hazeltine）夺得美国PGA锦标赛的冠军。而今年夏天，美国PGA锦标赛就将在海泽戴尔球场举行。在伍兹夺得的冠军中，有68%都是在他曾经打过比赛的球场所夺取的。[/font]* c5 { ~4 o+ c8 P
[font=Verdana] 因此，在伍兹包揽四大满贯赛上押注是否值得？美国的一位统计专家克里斯托弗-兰普博士（Dr. Christopher Rump）认为，博彩者在这个赔率上押注不划算。伍兹职业生涯夺得大满贯的几率为：参加46场赛大满贯赛拿下14个冠军。如果按照Markov链模型（Markov Chain Model）分析他的状态，那么伍兹包揽四大满贯赛冠军的几率仅为1/116。如果按照伍兹最近在大满贯赛的胜率算（40%），那么他包揽四大满贯赛冠军的几率也只是1/38。[/font]
3 {5 x. {( z- K" v6 _[font=Verdana] 在美巡赛2000赛季至2001赛季期间，伍兹曾经连续夺得过四大满贯赛的冠军，不过那不是在同一个日历年所取得。[/font] |
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