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第三节 案例分析
: c: V+ P# i& o* Q: k 例1:里昂 3-0 梅斯 (法联杯)( K' M, [0 J& _
初赔:1.40 3.70 7.00 支持一球0.80 实际初盘:0.80一球 1.05
/ E! ^% d& X& Y4 [* S y2 S 中赔:1.44 3.75 6.25 支持一球0.875 实际中盘:0.82 一球 1.15
! H4 j( L+ W, ^: G8 a 终赔:1.46 3.75 7.70 支持一球0.925 实际终盘:0.75 一球 1.15) H% L% c) E' `2 O0 L
分析:可能造热方为主队上盘。初盘水位与初赔吻合,上盘未出现同向受热。中盘水位略低于折合水位,下盘赔付较高。高峰期水位与中盘水位一致,缺少明显变化。临场降水为超低水,上盘赔付较于折合水位偏低。初设造热方未出现应有热度,而是一直降低赔付,最终的顺利打出。
6 v1 T d& K3 H* Z9 V
, R) [0 A" k' ]/ h2 A; A* l 例2:尤文图斯3-0 拿波里
1 w- n5 ?" V; A2 {) f/ w) L' P 初赔:1.90 3.10 3.65 支持半球0.90 实际初盘:0.95 半球 0.90
b a9 A* R9 s0 K0 K5 P' Q" \3 ] 中赔:2.05 3.15 3.60 支持半球1.05 实际中盘:1.10 半球 0.80
Y. v- S2 w3 P4 t% A 终赔:1.95 3.15 4.00 支持半球0.95 实际终盘:1.00 半球 0.909 v& r, i1 c& l' s4 `2 J7 b/ B
分析:主队近况低迷,客队近期状态较好,排名差距不大,客队下盘存在被造热可能。初盘上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘被造热。中盘阶段上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘降水,下盘造热成功。终盘阶段上盘水位下调,略高于折合水位,下盘升水幅度较大盘口贴水较高,造热方赔付较高,最终上盘打出。
: K$ N& |5 Y6 N 9 E; j1 S4 M7 i2 k
例3:桑坦德0-0 艾科坎(国王杯)
+ V3 [2 N) a/ d 初赔:1.50 3.60 5.30 支持一球1.00 实际初盘:1.00 一球 0.85
, h8 P* K. |6 V4 { 中赔:1.50 3.70 6.90 支持一球1.00 实际中盘:0.90 一球 1.00
: r4 M( |+ Q. z 终赔:1.55 3.50 6.50 支持一球1.10 实际终盘:1.13 一球 0.77
# @6 p( p* i; c& U 分析:可能造热方向为主队上盘,初赔阶段盘赔水位一致,上下盘都不
; L. W9 S ~4 @% e2 g 热,但上盘贴水较高。中盘阶段上盘降水,存在造热上盘可能;临场阶段上盘升水为超高水,贴水较高,上盘不出。1 q3 i. y2 [& @# {% ~& Q. O
2 ]5 }# f8 w3 u: G
例4:奥沙辛拿1-0 海格拉斯(国王杯)& H6 i% l( |! D9 h0 B4 P
初赔:1.65 3.40 4.50 支持半一9.75 实际初盘:0.70半球1.15" F" e7 e$ A8 {# V# O
中赔:1.90 3.30 3.90 支持半球0.90 实际中盘:0.96 半球0.94
3 v( u) L3 R2 z7 t! b- I 终赔:2.05 3.30 3.40 支持半球1.05 实际终盘:1.10 半球 0.80
4 p" p" B7 \. {5 N4 A 注:海格拉斯=靴格拉斯
0 E0 u: Z" v0 n2 T4 i8 h 分析:受热可能方为客队下盘,初盘上盘盘口低于折合盘口给超低水,上盘反成被造热方;中盘阶段上盘升水,上盘水位高于折合水位,上盘造热失败;终盘阶段上盘继续升水,下盘大热。最终上盘打出。+ J: f m3 j( p- ^8 ]
4 r/ ]: j6 T0 P& X3 [% [ 例5、AEK雅典1-1泰利普里斯(希腊超)0 @. B: J% u9 X3 `- @% r: I
易胜初赔:1.90 3.00 3.65 支持半球中低水
* E: e! p8 n* [ 实际初盘:0.65 平/半 1.20
, s8 }8 p/ P' U% n5 M 易胜终赔:2.10 3.20 3.40 支持平/半低
/ K. g8 W6 S0 t# R' W- s: j* f$ o* Q 实际终盘:0.82 平/半 1.08
; r' m3 q' M! R: z T 注:泰利普里斯=卓普利斯- N2 p+ `& E* g* X* i- j
分析:受热可能方向主队上盘,初赔盘口开小,给超低水,上盘受热。终赔支持平/半低水,上盘升水后盘赔比较一致,但是在造热方的赔付被提高,主队盘口较为便宜,下盘水位下调。最终上盘受热不出。" y4 Y1 @/ ?& t" ?2 u& F
1 f4 I4 p7 m& h) |3 H7 ^ 例6:帕纳辛奈科斯2-1佩亚列高斯(希腊超)1 E, w+ B/ ^- B0 R
易胜初赔:1.15 6.00 10.00 支持两球半超低水
! ^0 ^2 Z1 B! Y2 Y+ v9 N 实际初盘:0.85 两球 1.00* ?, V$ J3 A6 z Q7 B; |' k$ L
易胜终赔:1.11 8.00 12.00 支持三球以上) _# K# p( Y$ R. }
实际终盘:0.75 两球 1.10
2 t$ f, u# ]; x, W 注:帕纳辛奈科斯=彭拿典奈高斯
7 K4 v" O6 l& c4 d4 r 佩列亚高斯=派里高斯/ {+ T, ?4 C! w! ?5 H6 X) ?. L! _
分析:受热可能上盘主队,初盘盘口开小,水位虽为较低方,但是高于正常折合水位,上盘为受热方。临场继续降水,上盘造热成功型。最终上盘赢球输盘。 |
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所有的复盘,都是在知道结果的前提下进行的,总能找到一个理由或者观点才佐证这个赛果,任何看盘方法都有缺陷性,赌,心态第一,技术第二,运气第三,缺一不可 |
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