Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 28793
[posts] => 470149
[todayposts] => 51
[yesterdayposts] => 80
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2781443 Hashflow/比特币 (HFTBTC) 市场概览 - 2025-11-14（转） 1763106189 人生如赌
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7283 小时
本月在线: 22 小时
|
|
比特币面临长期持有者的缓慢抛售，投资者逐步获利，这表明市场周期已趋于成熟和稳定。
) B4 d$ Q6 `# K8 O# f3 v( P2 f4 [* p5 c) j' o }! @6 `
分析人士表示，比特币的抛售压力来自谨慎的长期持有者，而不是恐慌性抛售者，这表明市场趋势更加成熟。
+ u5 w' I6 ~- |, J5 o* G! d! j. o) k1 p ~) j$ `6 A
尽管交易所交易产品、企业和机构投资者都表现出强劲的买盘兴趣，但比特币近期维持上涨势头的艰难仍在持续。在X上分享的一份详细分析中，克里斯·库珀特许金融分析师（CFA）解释说，目前的抛售压力主要来自长期持有者，也就是所谓的“HODLers”，他们在多年积累后正在慢慢获利了结。
$ G! v) w) D) _7 u
0 s8 W( j4 `+ t1 ?, w8 g广告 % [6 Q2 i3 f# f0 o& @
链上数据显示，这种抛售并非恐慌性抛售，而是行为的渐进和可控转变，反映了更加成熟的市场动态。- D! v+ Q4 W) c
$ V; U1 U+ j( M! H3 J+ ]6 }
长期持有者正在缓慢获利了结
9 s Q9 {1 d2 Y& m( s库珀强调了一个特定的链上指标的重要性：比特币一年以上未活跃交易的百分比。历史上，该指标在熊市期间会上升，因为投资者会持有比特币；而在牛市期间，由于持有者在价格上涨时抛售，该指标会急剧下降。然而，这一次的趋势更为平缓。数据显示，该指标并未出现急剧下降，而是呈现出缓慢而持续的下降趋势，即便在……比特币的价格略有上涨。* A: l0 s; U, z
6 I7 C6 j& t$ A4 ^$ V/ R0 f
这一趋势表明，长期持有者正在逐步实现利润，而不是一次性抛售。库珀认为，这种行为与目前横盘整理的市场状况相符，投资者行事谨慎，等待更明确的信号后再进行大举操作。
- H+ m$ U# X& |" r( G6 j( z& ?
: T6 r$ o+ _5 e5 |2 W3 @9 O! o: i! t) B投资者疲劳和年末调整% r0 k$ I( U4 M6 b$ j
库伊珀认为，部分销售放缓的原因是投资者疲劳。比特币近期的表现低于预期。黄金和标普500指数双双下跌，令投资者失望，他们原本预期在比特币四年周期的牛市阶段能获得更强劲的回报。许多人曾预期10月和11月会出现一波上涨行情，这两个月通常是比特币的季节性上涨行情，但这一波行情并未出现。
( s+ t. v8 l3 N8 G
( u( `0 h2 H# z另请阅读：9 d+ n7 _+ L0 `0 E9 [1 r
比特币价格本周会跌破 10 万美元吗？
% R8 `2 v1 H$ Z; s% s,- k# O) ~# ?6 M9 D+ r" N2 t( N* U
因此，一些长期持仓者已开始锁定利润，并在年底前调整仓位，这很可能是为了税务筹划和投资组合再平衡。这种失望情绪与务实决策相结合，导致了持续的抛售压力，但并未出现恐慌性抛售，因为市场参与者比以往周期更加谨慎地管理风险。8 n" \& @; J# l' U
; S" w0 }3 ?( u# z2 g' y" P2 ]更成熟的市场周期8 J U8 e. ^; `$ S, _
在库伊珀的分析基础上，胡里奥·莫雷诺CryptoQuant 研究主管提供的数据支持了这一观点，数据显示，比特币一年非活跃供应量（衡量长期持有者活跃度的指标）在 2021 年和当前的 2024-2025 年周期中仅下降了 10 个百分点，而 2017-2018 年期间的降幅则高达 20 个百分点。
1 _8 \$ p; D4 V& B$ d1 r, n$ ~- V' g
[6 L4 n1 N+ }0 A莫雷诺的研究结果证实，本轮抛售是可控且有序的，反映出投资者群体经验更加丰富，比特币市场也日趋成熟。尽管价格走势较为平缓，但两位分析师一致认为比特币的基本面依然强劲，一旦卖方力量耗尽，就可能为下一轮显著的价格反弹铺平道路。
, q% s0 ]" ]5 }" x! I1 h2 E& y" U- H1 _/ ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13513 小时
本月在线: 40 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 173 小时
本月在线: 12 小时
|
|
|
长期持有者逐步抛售比特币，市场趋于成熟和稳定，潜在买入机会呼之欲出 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19439 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
