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[lastpost] => 2759824 比特币:前景或取决于美国GDP及通胀数据 1756649143 垂钓园
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经历过 defi 崛起全过程的人,会发现链上游戏有非常好的叙事。
2 |' t( s- }! P( \: u5 M9 R我觉得最重要的两条是可组合性和自主性,非常棒,这种棒更像是 blockchain 价值观的棒。对玩家的体验来说就没那么明显了,比如可玩性?
$ ~9 Q2 i9 H |0 D* g0 L# f% E% M相比其他 crypto 赛道,链上游戏的优势是游戏天然更普世,另外游戏没有金融那么严肃,迭代速度会更快。
% F3 D) ~: ]* L9 ?/ N2 T可组合性在可玩性的超越上的确是个巨大的机会。乐高积木是个好例子,还有塞尔达。. l" s% ^! X4 m; T6 O8 }$ @& f" _1 T( D
自主性相对没那么大,至少在可玩性上机会不大。也许最近被封禁的人会更有体会,比如玩不了暴雪游戏的天朝人?
7 n& s$ f8 p9 P: c7 x; Z2 p* D6 Y. C, y链上游戏的目标究竟是什么?短期(比如下个周期内,也就是2到4年内)目标是什么?我觉得是证实这是一个有长期价值的赛道。证实是关键,现在还是叙事阶段。
' x5 }( R; H S$ S6 N如何才能证实?
3 d& D# o) [/ G6 k3 m有一定数量的用户。比如日活能有十万?还是日活能有其他传统游戏的百分之一?
8 A9 r2 \# R& I5 r# k' x" C可组合性创造了新产品和新体验。简单说就是开创了新的游戏品类,可能最初是一款链上游戏的成功,接着是许多模仿者,规模化可复制的类似游戏出现。
! u. x$ U% F) l! K有这两点,赛道就成立了,叙事成了现实,也许用户绝对数量不多,依然算成功,就像现在的 defi 至少取得了阶段性胜利。
3 c B$ u( c3 o% f4 @ n18年的 defi 面临的问题不一样。defi 的问题是相对确定的,我们有了 cefi ,现在如何在链上实现主要的金融场景:稳定币,借贷和交易。稳定币是最快的,接着有了借贷;先有模仿cefi 的 dex , 再有了 uniswap 。随后才有 comp 的流动性挖矿,yfi 启动 ,defi summer 。
6 n/ z2 q4 Y p; M, p8 ]defi 叙事的实现其实分两步完成,各类 defi 产品做出来就有了可组合性,但是真正发挥出可组合性优势是在流动性挖矿之后,随后才真正点燃市场,获得足够的用户。在这之前,只有极少的专业用户使用。
. G1 I* v1 B% U如果产品价值 = 新体验 - 旧体验 - 迁徙成本,defi 的迁徙成本过高,或者新体验带来的新价值并不高,直到流动性挖矿大幅提升了新价值,虽然也只是一时的提高。流动性挖矿的奖励降下来之后,大部分用户是很少使用 defi 的,这和打车不一样,补贴结束,还是有相当比例的用户留了下来并长期使用。
0 l, G9 _+ h* R# `, _* }0 s! U即使如此, defi 在crypto赛道里依然算非常成功。 H2 ^( v# ?9 p6 l/ Z
链上游戏会怎样?新体验-旧体验-迁徙成本怎么算?同样需要补贴么?这些问题现在都是非常复杂的迷宫。
, {' B( [* k; j7 [- T: B$ n我认为补贴大概率是会出现的,也是需要的。2 Z+ _+ l. V) ?: u0 d5 q
目前看到的链上游戏,如果从传统游戏世界里找用户的话,迁徙成本是非常高的,新体验带来的价值也没有那么强,强到扣除后面两者还能余下很多,吸引到足够多新用户的程度。( x8 X# s G5 @& T8 O
4 W0 B* B: C/ D5 T" u. B# A |
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