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21点算牌与当日冲销类似,坐在赌桌等机会,算到好牌下大注。) b0 [- r7 a1 d( _9 d
算牌时将牌分成小牌(2-6)及大牌(10JQKA),789不重要不算。自第一手自0开始看到小牌加1大牌减1。$ z4 s" ]! P- [9 E. H# K! Q3 h& Q8 A
依剩馀副数调整真数供下注及打牌参考。
& X$ R9 f9 {" b" h! ^' \8 m1 ~假设你面对6副牌基本输率0.25%赌桌,算到真1平均赢DC0.25%,应该下多少钱?下几手?每一真1算牌客平均多赢0.5%,真2赢0.75%,真3+1.25%。
# l  A4 }4 m  @! a/ K- S真数愈高表示看到小牌多剩下大牌多庄家(必须补到17点)易爆,大牌愈多算牌客应少加牌、多投降、多赌倍、多分牌。
$ M4 t1 b/ l7 w: a2 v& G: }- V( y例如基本策略12 versus 庄3加牌,真2以上时不加。打多大打几门依赌本,风险偏好及同桌门数而不同。$ L: |$ H& k" b6 C6 I* ^# Z
假设使用50万美元,依半凯利下注……面对1%获利机会下1/2%的赌本,赌本加倍前输光的风险约1.8%(平均98.2%可以成功把赌本加倍)。1 i1 o0 D9 U$ Y. _& A" ]
玩21点时下注后还会分牌及赌倍使下注增加,因此2%收益率不应下1%赌本,而是1%的76%……0.76%。
/ n, n/ H- @+ m0 _如果只下一门0.76%但下二门风险分散总下注额可以增加46%……下一门0.76%,下二门二门各0.56%合计1.12%,下三门总下注额可以增加71%!下三门各0.43%,合计1.3%。
6 ^: ~: D7 d& q  x, q; d把500,000赌本代入,各种情形之下注额如下:1 ]' h7 a; I1 V! b) c/ V. D
下一门 下二门合计 下三门合计
8 J' c. e0 m- ]3 g- z) U) l真1 500 700 800
9 V9 [5 D) p/ o" @# j真2 1400 2100 2400
# D. {; F* {, t真3 2400 3500 4100
8 D8 O  V8 F! U7 j) x; L; B$ c% b0 D真4 3300 4900 5700
7 n' V, ~: P& w% O8 ~; ?真5 4300 6200 7300' y5 J* F  P: o1 Z8 H  v2 y: j
真6 5200 7600 8900  ^" V3 S9 T5 W3 }
真7 6200 9000 10,600
! p) P. M2 _# Q) g6 D如果有选择,好牌时应该下几门?
) [8 Z. g* V& R7 |Don Schleisinger在《Blackjack Attack》一书中分析如下:8 ~& \; |& @- `5 |' ?
假设你打7位赌桌,单独打,同桌有另一人,另二人,另三人,另四人,你打几门最好?假设顶注500元一人下一门100次约540张牌(平均一轮一位用2.7张牌),下二门只能下67次(540÷8.1)下三门下50次(540÷10.8)则风险相同下(一门下500元风险与二门共下730元及三门共下855元风险相同)下一门总下注额最高:5 ~) q$ a1 m8 r/ z9 T- Z5 N
一人打 下注次数 总下注额% Z% `7 ?/ f9 t  l1 c
下一门 100 50,000*6 ~$ {- D# M# Z9 [4 |: M/ L- G9 L
下二门 67 48,910
8 ~. l7 Z' O' @: i& m. |/ @1 T下三门 50 42,7504 {4 u$ O+ R4 E. Y6 n5 d4 |
*即风险相同下下一门总下注额最高(获利最高)。( \0 f, z, F1 e1 i4 N
若同桌有另一人下一门:
  \$ G! i& C; r* a$ y二人打 下注次数 总下注额) o7 F/ B2 s. h
你下一门 67 33,520
% D1 _5 Q8 b+ U+ i) c你下二门 50 36,500*
- c: f! s$ i  Q' K: w你下三门 40 34,200
+ ~  J* h7 ~; a7 |6 e- e*即下二门总获利最高。' y4 H6 l( Y+ l- h8 S& |( g. y
若同桌有人下二门:2 T+ J! O, F$ Z
三人打 下注次数 总下注额
! U! ]# O/ {! @+ s  M/ _6 ?你下一门 50 25,000
7 M# t1 u, E( o: W# y6 P你下二门 40 29,200*
; [  j  s- y! W: T9 p, G4 j6 O( u/ s你下三门 33 28,215* O+ c3 W. T. W) \
*也是下二门总获利最高。: l. P' e5 D0 j3 w) v4 ?2 n
若同桌有人下三门:! t+ e+ t% ^) u2 y- s- \6 n2 m
四人打 下注次数 总下注额4 l. @2 H, f! X- ?# A* w$ x
你下一门 40 20,0001 W. L) F" N  t6 x% a7 ^# T0 {
你下二门 33 24,090
) [: W2 w+ E7 W你下三门 29 24,795*
# @4 x  Z1 c! s2 z( q*下三门好。
5 z* |! D; G' a! ~& t- O五人打 下注次数 总下注额
( I$ [( K! H$ p' I你下一门 33 16,520; X' |9 \, D- g0 W
你下二门 29 21,170; Y# A$ b/ w+ K7 T5 @
你下三门 25 21,375*
' w. g1 d4 F% m: r; ~$ s- [*下三门好。
' }- z/ ?$ {$ U7 C: C  e综合而言,在上限以内时,一人打打一门,二人打打二门,三人打打二门,四人及五人打打三门,但若仔细看其实一律打二门与最适打差得有限。如一人打时只差2%(50,000与48,910比),四人打差3%,五人打差1%因此好牌时一律打二门无妨。
1 d4 F0 g$ |. b% ~. M注意「上限以内」为前提。
1 V$ j1 b# g# T% r$ g如果上限为500,好牌应下1000,则即使只一人打也应打二门甚至三门,又最后一回不必省牌多打几门无妨。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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