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[打法交流]
玩双色球防骗技巧----“一码中蓝”,搁你头上你晕不晕?(转)
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玩双色球防骗技巧----“一码中蓝”,搁你头上你晕不晕?嘀嘀嘀”,短信来了。/ u' r7 _% Z; z' G7 J
打开一看:“彩票公司回报彩民,向您透露本期双色球蓝号:15。请勿外传,机会只此一次,请善加把握。”
" ^$ P0 U; P- ` p" {5 J/ N* W$ m你嗤之以鼻:“切,哪来的骗子!”
+ G. e8 ]3 w: r, Z" j一开奖,你傻眼了:蓝球15。
5 N. V1 p$ e* g+ P# N: N ], U大腿拍烂了也来不及了!我怎么就没相信人家呢!彩票公司直接告诉我号码了我咋就没信呢!早知道我买它十万注蓝球15哇!/ F9 K! U& U; B1 @: g, b2 Q# i6 y
还说人家是骗子,人家开奖之前告诉我号码,就一个15,一开就中了,人家哪里骗我了!
2 n" e& I2 l& @9 y) \- {于是,你疯了一般后悔、痛恨自己错失良机。* [8 m' `6 a0 r+ w
再过几分钟,你的想法发生了变化,刚才的悔恨已经变成了希望----要是它再给我发一次该多好!
- x, T3 y5 n, V3 J这时电话打过来了:“恭喜您中奖,蓝球15您打了多少倍?”
, u( a8 z6 n# [ \( f8 Z你捶胸顿足,求对方再告诉你下期的蓝号。
; z! l% C L$ z; {$ F对方犹豫不决,你主动提出给人家好处。
' [0 }$ e1 n( \1 X i0 M于是,用一万块钱买了下期的蓝号。
; ? R' x- E1 V他告诉你10号。( f' o9 l4 O$ R6 n+ |" v
接下来呢………………
5 p( n- t4 s9 p7 u( x, E………………………………
" s- d5 @" _3 }" G…………………………………… V* B/ [5 H) ?
你倾家荡产买的蓝球10,全折了。- p4 D4 {1 `! w1 K3 {
明明它就是骗子嘛!
' E7 m V% O7 ~' P可是,他那个蓝球15是怎么准的呢?2 b! d1 n2 n5 ~' ^
这就是幸存者偏差。你看它只看到一个点,而他面对的却是16万个随机目标。
3 S) U: R/ t# k* n5 T2 J他给这16万个电话号码发短信,第一万个人它告诉蓝球1;第二万个人它告诉蓝球2;第三万个人它告诉蓝球3……你是第十五万个人中的一员,他告诉你15。4 v( `" `/ ~1 F# i7 T+ r
一开奖,必定有一万个人会发现自己收到的“唯一的蓝号”中奖了。1 \3 }4 n8 E: }9 o" j/ Z6 b
这一万个人中可能有二百个恰好是彩民。! t+ Z# n, P U$ Q4 `) s$ F
这二百个彩民当中肯定可以涌现出一两个像你一样“头脑灵活”的人。5 w. o& D( J4 {0 o! _
于是,你幸运地成为“一码中蓝”的上钩者。
; D9 q1 p3 ]* ?- c+ k8 ^
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