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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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第三节 案例分析5 R5 k/ c" o% y8 w
例1:里昂 3-0 梅斯 (法联杯)$ r& Y: @6 n: h* H$ A( w- P
初赔:1.40 3.70 7.00 支持一球0.80 实际初盘:0.80一球 1.05, V* Q: S e5 W# A! I7 C- i& l
中赔:1.44 3.75 6.25 支持一球0.875 实际中盘:0.82 一球 1.15
" Z% c q# z& F9 G2 G: \4 A 终赔:1.46 3.75 7.70 支持一球0.925 实际终盘:0.75 一球 1.15" Z( h; c8 {, o3 T6 n) T% n7 ~8 f
分析:可能造热方为主队上盘。初盘水位与初赔吻合,上盘未出现同向受热。中盘水位略低于折合水位,下盘赔付较高。高峰期水位与中盘水位一致,缺少明显变化。临场降水为超低水,上盘赔付较于折合水位偏低。初设造热方未出现应有热度,而是一直降低赔付,最终的顺利打出。
3 d$ X" d- j2 J1 d. c: A 3 u, I( g' y& ?& Q" x
例2:尤文图斯3-0 拿波里' Q% S$ t' Z9 A, ]5 e% M7 ~
初赔:1.90 3.10 3.65 支持半球0.90 实际初盘:0.95 半球 0.90
3 R' [% X+ k. G# W 中赔:2.05 3.15 3.60 支持半球1.05 实际中盘:1.10 半球 0.80
5 B: T: }5 Q n/ k1 l! K2 v 终赔:1.95 3.15 4.00 支持半球0.95 实际终盘:1.00 半球 0.90
. N8 H6 V7 x2 u! S, O 分析:主队近况低迷,客队近期状态较好,排名差距不大,客队下盘存在被造热可能。初盘上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘被造热。中盘阶段上盘水位高于折合水位,下盘降水,下盘造热成功。终盘阶段上盘水位下调,略高于折合水位,下盘升水幅度较大盘口贴水较高,造热方赔付较高,最终上盘打出。
7 c# A2 g) R9 m4 h" v 5 i ]6 y5 g( ? u$ E
例3:桑坦德0-0 艾科坎(国王杯)
' ^. Z, J4 H; {* a) N 初赔:1.50 3.60 5.30 支持一球1.00 实际初盘:1.00 一球 0.85- f. n$ l$ D! m4 v! |, z8 g5 d
中赔:1.50 3.70 6.90 支持一球1.00 实际中盘:0.90 一球 1.00& c# I' J' y8 s2 B# g) l
终赔:1.55 3.50 6.50 支持一球1.10 实际终盘:1.13 一球 0.77
+ e' B9 T! o7 ?3 T: V 分析:可能造热方向为主队上盘,初赔阶段盘赔水位一致,上下盘都不
; V; I r" m/ Y' j" p' a 热,但上盘贴水较高。中盘阶段上盘降水,存在造热上盘可能;临场阶段上盘升水为超高水,贴水较高,上盘不出。
A- b; E7 [7 P + o) O% e& _( Q0 n0 \
例4:奥沙辛拿1-0 海格拉斯(国王杯)8 Q% T( u& N; T6 \+ h. b$ y
初赔:1.65 3.40 4.50 支持半一9.75 实际初盘:0.70半球1.15
3 H1 k- [" n& s' b0 C- o 中赔:1.90 3.30 3.90 支持半球0.90 实际中盘:0.96 半球0.940 n7 e+ V7 {; g3 S8 v; Z( P" a
终赔:2.05 3.30 3.40 支持半球1.05 实际终盘:1.10 半球 0.80
" |( f% v8 Z& n5 l( R' _( p 注:海格拉斯=靴格拉斯
/ ~5 u* o7 P0 Y. H 分析:受热可能方为客队下盘,初盘上盘盘口低于折合盘口给超低水,上盘反成被造热方;中盘阶段上盘升水,上盘水位高于折合水位,上盘造热失败;终盘阶段上盘继续升水,下盘大热。最终上盘打出。% s: i k; A5 a" _7 r
- p$ p* z& G, {' D$ I: E6 [* B: d 例5、AEK雅典1-1泰利普里斯(希腊超): U, I4 H I% z0 I* |6 ^' Q
易胜初赔:1.90 3.00 3.65 支持半球中低水5 L& o$ A& @# W F! D/ E# R8 m# P
实际初盘:0.65 平/半 1.20; F+ K& |/ T- V% R7 I1 G
易胜终赔:2.10 3.20 3.40 支持平/半低
# `2 | y7 k# J+ ~; M3 M 实际终盘:0.82 平/半 1.08
. k s* m0 x* Q6 k: `( f 注:泰利普里斯=卓普利斯& h- o1 w! o+ H. ~6 D0 ^! X) N. R" w
分析:受热可能方向主队上盘,初赔盘口开小,给超低水,上盘受热。终赔支持平/半低水,上盘升水后盘赔比较一致,但是在造热方的赔付被提高,主队盘口较为便宜,下盘水位下调。最终上盘受热不出。
4 ?3 B7 U5 O: r6 t( c9 M 0 q/ o/ n. j) ^( ^
例6:帕纳辛奈科斯2-1佩亚列高斯(希腊超)
- L( u5 e7 j+ S) v8 F6 K: ]# \) S* n0 ]) h 易胜初赔:1.15 6.00 10.00 支持两球半超低水
! G( P* s! H3 E 实际初盘:0.85 两球 1.00
+ r7 E! B! U% f& D' P 易胜终赔:1.11 8.00 12.00 支持三球以上8 B1 U) V4 r5 [9 l8 n S0 [
实际终盘:0.75 两球 1.106 r' L- M/ B) b! k/ X! l( S/ Z# D
注:帕纳辛奈科斯=彭拿典奈高斯
: V8 O* r3 g! U! ]$ o1 k- G) x 佩列亚高斯=派里高斯
+ e- i% X- B9 I7 J! l Y 分析:受热可能上盘主队,初盘盘口开小,水位虽为较低方,但是高于正常折合水位,上盘为受热方。临场继续降水,上盘造热成功型。最终上盘赢球输盘。 |
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所有的复盘,都是在知道结果的前提下进行的,总能找到一个理由或者观点才佐证这个赛果,任何看盘方法都有缺陷性,赌,心态第一,技术第二,运气第三,缺一不可 |
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