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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
& g7 Q' D6 H- K* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
. D8 z4 ]3 U+ ]2 w2 k- X H凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k2 d/ L4 L5 T$ S; g7 b
# z' w3 o1 C) X
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)' }' q5 a% y8 I$ _
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [/ n6 R& _8 b2 [- L$ [. x
6 B! }) L/ w5 [, q) P
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h5 b* G$ |! n7 D: C) o. h9 ^0 M
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ & D# |1 U! I# [9 u/ N0 H; y& u
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s4 A0 `5 X- A- C2 G( o, M
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
% R) w/ l+ j* b8 `: q& c; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
8 E0 D U, E$ ]: O. ^* Q0 Q1 B; q g(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n6 D! i. r. Y. v( E
7 l! W" J8 x. S( _" g- k N- @8 D(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
; Z* f4 C, E3 n; T% p
/ j) c! a! I3 e7 j5 ?3 w W d9 `(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t* Q$ i7 c6 v! o' g
) u( N0 x* A) h( x- n0 r4 r8 a! O
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 t' u4 c* Q+ H6 c
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _, v' a! f5 u- y/ ?5 Q/ {2 x' f' x
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
3 ^7 B, [' X" B" U5 J5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
9 T k6 K. ^+ B$ d' o- n8 J, B) uS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 9 w$ ?: m" B: i5 N, O% g
- w$ F0 M- F5 m2 DS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
) W, M$ E2 C" D/ w; g% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
8 W( T: ~0 G4 N: r4 m" F; h xS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 * H% j. t# B' d( i0 {# P' G) {4 }
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j4 H; U( Z( @. E5 t! P- }
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
/ i4 j2 _& m U8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
8 b" X+ W/ {1 f3 l. e- a, B1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
J+ [0 q: N3 C% l' s& Q8 }9 X
: ]6 T% B1 L; q: E. ^1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l, G3 j8 c5 w0 k( E
. w; W) d, g: e" x1 r
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q( z$ c3 G$ n6 r9 U4 I* J
+ s: @ |; q5 f$ u* R: o k1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
! a0 y$ Z4 f8 B* o/ ~, A6 W3 L: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
* Y* J4 W6 V7 b" S3 J' mS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
& _8 f C) N' |5 U1 {; w/ G2 H" a: |) m" _0 n1 W3 \) m, b" @
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j# O1 a' n% h% U- g7 D
: m, [0 C0 a y0 t1 x
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; + C7 Y9 [$ \2 E" Q# M. S0 L# B) V
* _& s# A5 i. `% v/ a% IS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 d9 C, k; }9 _" n ?
; m' V% T, u, P% O
" O) f; s+ ~) M. b: i# S( fS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
" M5 r# q% v; C6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
2 F- x; m4 B7 Q \& x: o- h$ P( KS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
; o4 d. s& }+ a/ P4 ^1 W! Z0 l: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
, z( f5 ^; u' v9 \0 j5 Y; V5 e(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
2 w2 x- K: L! N9 |* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
9 W" M4 a7 `8 ^' v# J) R9 Z好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
- s6 x7 d n! m, d0 T( m) q( ], k9 L T& t! |; V$ e+ ?8 |0 C
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
( d f; ^; g7 Q# c) x
. F3 g& s& x- W0 @' N% Q% q5 D% CF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
8 ?/ C1 G7 n; K- x
8 ^/ b0 M' {( _ Y于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
4 a6 O: A/ X7 D6 X0 V& R8 L G9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {9 r" ~' T5 v! h' J- j6 {
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M% g. V, ` N7 C5 I( l% Q$ E9 v
+ D$ n) P# X# M
) s4 f+ a0 G- @8 T% U$ S5 gG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 " V* _9 k8 B3 T w* _1 X
4 u! e$ r$ w) K' i# \5 o/ R7 U( w
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
3 q: q. B+ P; x8 d0 p; ]5 O7 I2 ] h; m' X& T- @& O1 C
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
3 k. k8 v: l0 U6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
* J: K9 B) ~8 R通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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